Pipeline proponents slowly winning ‘hearts and minds’

Each day, it seems another pipeline protest pops up in North America, such as the one outside of Enbridge’s annual meeting in downtown Calgary this week.

Down south in Houston, antipipeline forces showed up at Kinder Morgan’s annual general meeting to oppose the expansion of its Trans Mountain pipeline. And in New York, the mayor of Vancouver boldly predicted the project would never be completed because of “resistance on the ground.” So what could possibly make Enbridge CEO Al Monaco think the battle over building energy infrastructure — such as his company’s Line 3 project — is actually being won by those who favour development?

Well, for one, people are now paying attention to the issue.

“In Canada, the pipeline challenges are framed as a national crisis. But that debate is also changing the game as we speak, because it’s making people think about why energy matters to them,” Monaco told shareholders at the Wednesday meeting.

“The importance of energy to society is now finally resonating.”

There are some signs to support this premise. A poll this month by Nanos Research found two out of three Canadian back the $7.4-billion expansion of the Trans Mountain project.

Canadians are also highly engaged in the discussion. The survey found 96 per cent of respondents say they’ve heard of Trans Mountain.

Even with daily headlines about the project, that’s a remarkable level of awareness, given we’re talking about twinning a pipeline first built in the early 1950s.

And while roughly 40 protesters gathered before Enbridge’s meeting, a larger pro-pipeline rally also congregated outside the same hotel, with approximately 90 backers in favour of energy development, according to police estimates.

Now, Calgary is the heart of the oilpatch, where thousands of jobs hinge on the sector’s success.

But in British Columbia, more than 100 people in Kamloops showed up for a pro-Trans Mountain rally Wednesday, bearing placards that read: “Want cheaper gas? Build the damn pipeline.”

Perhaps it’s taken oil to soar above US$71 a barrel, as it did Thursday, or gasoline prices to jump above $1.50 a litre in Vancouver to help Canadians connect the dots in a much larger picture.

Energy matters.

It requires billions of dollars of necessary infrastructure and thousands of jobs to get supplies from producers and processors into the hands of consumers.

“Today, the people in the middle are asking what happens if we can’t develop our resources and get them to market?” Monaco said.

“We need to remember that stalled projects have real-life consequences.”

Canada is already seeing the fallout. A new RBC Economics report says because of insufficient pipeline capacity, the price difference between U.S. benchmark crude and Western Canadian Select heavy oil will average about US$21 a barrel this year, up from $12.80 in 2017.

If all Canadian heavy oil was sold at such a discount, it would cost the economy almost $7 billion over the course of a year.

Not all Alberta oil trades at such a wide price differential. The discount has fallen in recent weeks and more barrels will be shipped by rail in the coming months.

However, there will be a price to pay if projects such as Trans Mountain aren’t completed.

“There is a cost and it’s kind of silly — it doesn’t make sense economically to ship by rail when you can ship by pipelines for cheaper,” said RBC senior economist Nathan Janzen.

“Whether it’s big or small, it’s a cost to the economy in the long run that is unnecessary.”

For pipeline proponents, this paints a compelling picture: build, baby, build.

For critics, worries about increased tanker traffic off the B.C. coast, the impact of such projects on Canada’s greenhouse gas emissions, and concerns about inadequate consultations with First Nations aren’t fading.

They need to be addressed, with facts and reason.

The Nanos poll also found 61 per cent of Canadians believe the economy and environment should receive equal consideration when it comes to building pipelines.

With feelings running high on both sides, the Alberta government will spend $1.2 million on a new communications campaign to back Trans Mountain, with most of it focused on efforts to proselytize in B.C.

“Right now, we are winning hearts and minds in B.C. — just look at the polling,” Premier Rachel Notley said Thursday.

“Now is not the time to take the foot off the pedal.”

Opponents aren’t about to give in. They insist the number of people wanting to fight Trans Mountain is increasing, and the strength of their resolve is hardening, despite the poll results.

“When you start to dig into the details of what Canadians believe, I think it’s just as polarized as it’s always been,” said Mike Hudema, a campaigner with Greenpeace Canada.

In Minnesota, Enbridge is facing its own opposition to Line 3, which takes Canadian crude from the Hardisty area to the company’s terminal in Wisconsin.

The $9-billion project, designed to replace aging pipe, is awaiting a decision from Minnesota’s Public Utilities Commission, expected later next month.

On the broader pipeline front, Monaco believes the battle is finally shifting as “coalitions of support” are formed by grassroots Canadians — including labourers, academics and community leaders — willing to speak out about the importance of energy development in their daily lives.

“I do see an overall tipping point and change in how people are looking at energy,” he told reporters after the meeting ended and the protesters had gone home.

“They are looking at it more critically and seeing the advantages and benefits of energy.”

There is a cost and it’s kind of silly — it doesn’t make sense economically to ship by rail when you can ship by pipelines for cheaper.