Notley may prefer enemy to iffy friend in Ontario vote
Rachel Notley, the loneliest premier, could sure use an NDP ally on the national scene.
Will she find one in Andrea Horwath, the NDP leader who might just become Ontario premier on Thursday?
The need is great.
Notley has been unfriended by B.C. Premier John Horgan, and by Jagmeet Singh, the federal party leader, who is done with waffling and now opposes the Trans Mountain pipeline.
This shatters any hope of common cause among Canadian New Democrats. One of the smartest things Notley could do is sever all formal ties with the federal party.
Meanwhile, there’s this truly momentous Ontario election which has boiled down to a stark choice between Doug Ford, the Progressive Conservative Trump admirer, and Horwath of the NDP.
Notley says she knows Horwath quite well and they get along. Of course, that’s exactly what Alberta New Democrats used to say about Notley and Horgan.
Canada’s rarest bird is a central Canadian progressive leader who unambiguously supports Trans Mountain.
Horwath’s comments so far suggest the best Notley can hope for is windy neutrality.
Asked about her position on the dispute by the online publication National Observer, Horwath said, “We would want to make sure that our interests, our environmental interests from the perspective of a provincial government, are looked after.”
That’s predictably foggy. When pressed for clarification, she blamed the Harper government for watering down environmental assessments.
Notley said Monday: “I’ve got a good working relationship with Andrea. She’s a seasoned political leader who understands that every provincial leader needs to represent the interests of the province they are elected to represent. I suspect that she will do that just as I am doing that.”
The pipeline might seem to be a fading issue now that Ottawa is buying in. But it will rise again as protests expand. This won’t stop just because a court decided last week to broaden Kinder Morgan’s exclusion zones.
If the project slips into more trouble over time, Alberta will still need powerful elected allies, not same-party wafflers who sound vaguely encouraging until a pipeline appears on their turf.
So far, Notley’s only got Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe, who’s no friend on anything else of consequence.
Ford is a firm pipeline backer. But everything else about him will appal Notley.
He wants to dump Ontario’s cap-and-trade climate plan, cut personal income tax by 20 per cent for the middle class, lower gasoline tax by 10 cents a litre, all while finding $5.6 billion in spending efficiencies.
He says he would have voted for President Donald Trump. He admires Trump’s massive business tax cuts. But he doesn’t think comparisons with the president are fair.
It’s unclear whether Ford will be hurt by Trump’s 25 per cent tariff on Canadian steel. Or by Monday’s shocking revelation that the wife of his late brother is suing him, alleging he defrauded her family of Rob’s Ford’s assets.
Here’s the thing about a Ford victory, though — it could actually be politically useful for Notley.
“He’s probably going to make cuts that will affect all kinds of services in Ontario,” says Mount Royal University political analyst David Taras.
"She’ll be able to point to him and say to Albertans, ‘If you elect Jason Kenney and the UCP, you’re going to get these policies.’
“Some part of her must be saying, election gods, please give me Doug Ford.”
There’s a goody two-shoes side to Notley that probably wouldn’t let her think that thought.
And yet, to be suitably cynical about it, he might be more help than another iffy NDP ally.