LET THE BIDDING BEGIN FOR HAPP
Blue Jays’ ace lefty could be key piece for a rebuild in Toronto, writes Steve Simmons.
TORONTO One ground ball away from a complete game, remember them?
J.A. Happ walked off the mound in the sunshine on Wednesday afternoon to a standing ovation at Rogers Centre, a 5-4 Jays win over Atlanta, and in a way it felt like a grand goodbye. Or the beginning of the end for Happ as a Blue Jay.
It isn’t the end yet. He didn’t tip his cap. He didn’t get emotional. That will happen next month. That will happen if and when the Blue Jays play this properly. That will happen if general manager Ross Atkins can go back and forth with the Yankees, the Mariners, the Phillies and maybe the Brewers — all seemingly with some interest in the pending free agent — and somehow manipulate this wonderful asset of a left-handed starting pitcher into the kind of prospects the Blue Jays desperately require.
Time has already run out on this Jays season in any kind of meaningful way, even if they won’t say that. Now it’s a question of seeing what you have, seeing who has trade value, determine who is worth keeping long term. And until we have any idea whether Josh Donaldson can play and play well while healthy, the best chess piece that Atkins has is Happ, the most valuable player of this Blue Jays season gone wrong.
“I know he’s in demand. I can see why,” said John Gibbons, the Blue Jays manager caught in the spin of the baseball world forever divided between buyers and sellers. He’s been on the buyer side before. Now he’s sitting on the seller side, although that’s not exactly his job description.
“Who knows what happens next?” said Gibbons. “I’m sure he’s got to be at the top of the list.” And like Happ, he said, “I try not to look at those things.”
This is the unnatural unfolding of this and most baseball seasons. The better Happ pitches, the more likely he is to be dealt, the better the take for the Blue Jays, assuming they do their homework.
Last year, they got smart and fortunate with Teoscar Hernandez, a good hitter, not a good fielder, in a deal for Francisco Liriano. The return for Happ, if the deal is done properly, should be, in time, greater than that.
“He’s a treat,” Gibbons said of Happ. “He’s a pleasure to be around. He’s a professional in every phase of the game.”
This is Happ’s second go-round as a Blue Jay. You could argue he has never pitched better than he’s pitching right now. He won 20 games two years ago — and I know, stats people, wins don’t mean anything — but he’s already 9-3 on a struggling team.
That said, the external statistics about Happ this season don’t exactly reveal the truth. Scouting staffs around baseball have broken his work down further, compiling statistics on Happ and will do more of that as the trade deadline of July 31 gets closer. Some have determined that Happ’s actual numbers — earned run average, for example — are victims of two things. One, the Jays less than stellar defence. On Wednesday, two earned runs were scored in the ninth inning after two makable defensive plays were not made. And the scouting breakdown also factors in the number of runs he’s relinquished after leaving the game, attributable to wonky relief pitching.
Happ left the game Wednesday with a 3.56 ERA, but if you strip away the defensive woes and runners from first base having scored after his departure from games, that number is closer to 3.10. That’s basically an elite number for any starting pitcher.
And Happ has been around long enough to understand the position he finds himself in. He may not like it, may not want to be dealt, but maybe a playoff appearance or World Series beckons. How do you not want that?
The first time Happ was traded, from Philadelphia to Houston, he broke down and cried. He wasn’t ready for the move. He wasn’t mentally prepared to leave the team that drafted and developed him. It’s different now, much as he loves this team and this city. This is his sixth big-league stop, two of them being Toronto. He has been to the post-season three times, the World Series once. There is still a championship to win. A chance to be a difference-maker.
But first, smaller goals. He wanted the complete game Wednesday against Atlanta. He really wanted it. His last one came eight seasons back. He came out to pitch the ninth inning Wednesday, got one out, needed one ground ball for a double-play. It didn’t happen. “I had my chance,” Happ said. Maybe he’ll get more chances as a Blue Jay. Maybe not. This season is no longer about winning in Toronto. The house is now for sale. The market is small, but ripe.
The formal bidding is still to come on Happ.
The better Happ pitches, the more likely he is to be dealt, the better the take for the Blue Jays, assuming they do their homework.