Rumour has it powerhouse Lightning appear ready to strike for Karlsson
Senators’ star defenceman might find new home with fellow Swede Hedman
Expect Erik Karlsson to be traded to the Tampa Bay Lightning.
I was told this about 9:30 a.m. on Thursday by a friend who has an impeccable record when it comes to knowing inside information with the Senators. He said he’s “very comfortable” with the source that told him. He didn’t know any details, but thought it would be wise for me to “throw it out there.”
Other people around the league I checked with say there could very well be something to the rumour.
Tampa Bay general manager Steve Yzerman has been talking to Senators GM Pierre Dorion about Karlsson since before the draft. The Lightning have just under US$4.5 million in cap space and have to re-sign star winger Nikita Kucherov and goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy next summer. They would have to move some contracts out to make Karlsson fit.
But theoretically, Karlsson would offset the Toronto Maple Leafs’ signing of John Tavares and greatly improve Tampa’s chances of winning the Stanley Cup.
Because of a previous trade, the Lightning will lose their 2019 first round pick to the New York Rangers if they win the Cup next season — and the Senators would like to get one back because the Colorado Avalanche has their first round selection. But Yzerman can offer Ottawa 20-year-old defenceman Mikhail Sergachev, the ninth overall pick in 2016, or 22-year-old centre Brayden Point, who had 32 goals and 66 points last season, along with other enticing prospects or picks.
The Rangers get Tampa’s second round selection in 2019 if Tampa doesn’t win the Cup next spring.
It’s believed a trade between the two teams would not include Bobby Ryan, who still has four years on a contract that carries an annual $7.25-million cap hit the Senators would like to lose.
Dallas and Vegas could also still be in the mix on Karlsson, but Sergachev would be the best young replacement on defence anyone could offer Dorion.
The 6-foot-3, 215-pound Russian had nine goals and 40 points in 79 games as a rookie with the Bolts last season, and he’ll be playing on his entry level deal (cap hit: $894,166) until 2020-21.
The Lightning would surely prefer to keep Sergachev, but Dorion should be in no rush and is in position to play hardball.
Karlsson would likely be open to such a move, where he would be united with his friend and former Swedish junior teammate Victor Hedman. Also, Lightning owner Jeffrey Vinik has deep pockets and a willingness to spend, priming Tampa to be a contender for years.
Before 9:30 a.m. on Thursday, I was starting to believe Karlsson might just dig in his heels and remain with the Senators — at least until being eligible to test the open market by making himself available to all teams as an unrestricted free agent next July.
My pal Chris Stevenson at the Athletic threw out the theory a couple of days ago. What if Karlsson chose not to negotiate with any of the teams that had received permission to talk to him after he turned down what’s believed to be an eight-year, US$80 million opening offer from the Senators?
What if he wanted to increase his value by gambling that he can be better in 2018-19 than he performed in 2017-18, when he was playing on a damaged ankle?
Sure, there’s security against another injury by taking a deal now, but Karlsson is a confident guy. I’d bet that he’d bet on scoring more than nine goals and 62 points — which he did last season, his most unproductive in five years.
He already deserves more than the $11 million for eight years the Los Angeles Kings gave Drew Doughty on July 1. He’s a better player. If Karlsson has another year like he did in 2016-17, he could be worth between $12 million and $15 million a year, especially the way the salary cap keeps going up.
Wherever the Senators try to trade him, now or at the deadline, he could make it known that he wasn’t signing an extension. That would lessen the return Ottawa gets, but why would he care at that point?
Now, I choose to believe Karlsson when he says he’d like to remain with the Senators. I think he’d like to spend his whole career in Ottawa.
But not when the team is owned by Eugene Melnyk.
If there is a sale between now and next July, the new ownership could make some very big and popular splashes with the Ottawa fan base. It could place Daniel Alfredsson on board, in some capacity, and it could start spending to the cap.
Even if the Melnyk-owned Senators dealt Karlsson at the deadline, the new group could re-sign him to the contract he’s worth in 12 months.
Karlsson and Alfredsson are very close; do you not think they have discussed that possibility? I do.
Of course, Karlsson might also wonder what it’s going to take to get Melnyk out of the picture, as are the rest of us.
And now I’m more inclined to bank on the best player the Senators have ever had going to Tampa, winning a few Cups and living happily ever after.