Alberta on pace to add 2.1 million people by 2046

EDMONTON Alberta is expected to become more urban, more diverse — and more grey — as it adds 2.1 million people over the next three decades, according to the Alberta government’s latest population projections.

By 2046, Alberta is projected to have a population of 6.4 million — up from around 4.3 million now. That year, Alberta will have about as many people as the U.S. state of Indiana has now.

The government’s projected population growth rate through 2046 is around 1.4 per cent per year — the same rate Alberta posted last year.

University of Calgary economist Trevor Tombe said that projection is relatively modest and doesn’t anticipate a return to boom times, when growth rates neared three per cent. “The challenges are not going to be something we haven’t been dealing with continuously now for quite some time,” he said.

“(That rate of growth) sustained for a long period of time does result in a lot of people for sure, but it is something that can be managed, in the sense it’s building schools and hospitals to keep up.”

The latest population projections, released Tuesday, add another five years to the government’s population growth forecasts.

The projections factor in low, medium and high rates of economic growth. Under the most pessimistic economic forecast, Alberta will have 5.7 million people by 2046. The most optimistic calls for 7.6 million people.

Immigration is expected to drive population gains, contributing to 48 per cent of expected growth under the medium economic growth scenario. Net migration from other provinces — which nosedived during the recession — will contribute around 18 per cent of population growth, or 379,000 people.

Natural increases will cover the remainder, although the gap between births and deaths is expected to narrow. On an average day in 2046, 140 people are expected to die in Alberta, while about 202 will be born. About 70 Albertans died each day in 2017, while 157 were born.

As for where those people will live, the lion’s share of growth will be in the Edmonton-Calgary corridor, mirroring a nearly centurylong trend of urbanization. The census divisions that contain Fort McMurray and Grande Prairie will grow at about 1.1 and 1.4 per cent a year, respectively. The census divisions that contain Hanna and Stettler are the only areas of the province expected to see their populations shrink.

The only trend that has Tombe worried is Alberta’s aging population. “As recently as a decade ago we had more than six working-age people per person over the age of 65,” he said. “Today it’s closer to five. By the end of (the province’s) projection period we’ll be closer to three. We’re really seeing a big drop in the number of — effectively — tax paying individuals per elderly individuals.”