Notley courts Calgary voters with Stampede stamina
UCP still in front but NDP’s polling numbers in Calgary are looking better these days
Premier Rachel Notley climbs onto a fearsome Stampede bull. The gate opens.
She’s bucked into Row 20 of the grandstand, but instantly jumps up shouting “Yahoo — I love Calgary!”
The premier may not go that far to win a vote in Stampede City, but it’s close.
The ubiquitous Edmontonian even rode the Stampede zipline after declaring, “I’m not gonna let fear hold me back.”
She did look terrified, but off she went.
Notley called a wiener dog race at an MLA’s barbecue; she schmoozed with trainers and pooches at the Stampede Dog Bowl; she gave the barrel racers a pep talk.
She was in the parade, attended Pride Day at the Stampede and sailed flapjacks into a waiting pan at the McDougall Centre breakfast on Monday.
Notley sets a pace no other vote-seeking premier has ever matched at Stampede.
Her ministers and MLAs, expected to keep up with her, are exhausted. At Monday’s cabinet meeting, a lot of them looked as if they wanted to crawl back into bed.
It’s much noted that Notley, a runner, exhibits remarkable stamina.
Finance Minister Joe Ceci, who often runs with her, says she’s always trying to improve his 10-kilometre times. But he just can’t. Should he demand a drug test?
Stampede is often goody time for Calgary, especially the year before an election.
Last week, Notley was front and centre with a big one — the NDP commitment to complete the west Calgary ring road, the vital $1 billion-plus chunk of pavement between Highway 8 and the Trans-Canada Highway.
Notley also surprised reporters Monday by saying the province is quite likely to take an equity stake in the Trans Mountain pipeline. This has been a possibility since Ottawa stepped in, but now she makes it sound almost certain.
Only minutes later she told her cabinet — again with reporters present — that pipe is even now being delivered to depots west of Edmonton.
Her biggest asset these days is unbending support for the pipeline. She reinforces this every chance she gets.
Shortly after that, Greyhound cancelled all but one bus route in Western Canada. The NDP quickly pointed to a pilot project announced in the spring budget — $1.4 million in funding for mid-sized cities to establish routes to surrounding smaller communities.
Transportation Minister Brian Mason said the province can’t possibly replace the interprovincial routes. “That’s a national issue, now that four provinces won’t have service, and we’ll have to talk to Ottawa and the other provinces about that.”
But he believes Alberta can do a lot more to meet regional community needs.
All this, of course, is now about votes, of which the NDP is expected to book a serious shortage next spring.
The NDP can’t win without several seats in Calgary, where the party faces its biggest political challenge.
But in my view, this is not over yet. UCP politicians who assume it is should remember Jim Prentice.
For one thing, growing familiarity is helping the NDP “get” Calgary in ways it simply couldn’t back in 2015.
Notley has often talked about the recovery, while noting almost as an afterthought that the city still has serious problems. The rhetoric struck a lot of Calgarians as ignorant of their reality.
Now Notley says she isn’t satisfied with “a statistical recovery.” Rather, she wants a return to pre-recession prosperity that people feel in their own lives.
Many will dismiss that as just talk. But the fact is that NDP polling numbers have improved over the past year in Calgary, while the UCP isn’t where it should be.
Notley’s party has 33 per cent support in the city, according to a Leger poll. Jason Kenney’s opposition has 49 per cent. In the heat of a campaign, that is not an unbeatable lead.
Somewhat ominously for Kenney, provincewide UCP support is less than the combined total of the two “legacy” parties in the 2015 election — 47 per cent, compared to 52.
Only a brave or foolish soul would bet against the UCP at this point. Yet Notley and her crew see a crack of light. She dives into it at high speed.