Trudeau would be wise to work with Moe

Saskatchewan premier has support of public for his stand on carbon pricing

Those were the days: that heady spring of 2015 when a majority of Canadians didn’t need (not-yet-legal) marijuana to feel the pleasant warmth and euphoria associated with majority support for national carbon pricing.

It seemed such a good idea at the time, the federal Liberals incorporated it into their ultimately successful campaign platform.

Now, six months before Justin Trudeau’s government is set to implement a national plan to set a price on carbon emissions in provinces that don’t already have a scheme in place, Canadians are getting cold feet. National support for carbon pricing has dropped below 50 per cent, and the prime minister faces a burgeoning revolt from the provinces that only threatens to escalate.

Premiers Scott Moe of Saskatchewan and Doug Ford of Ontario have emerged as leaders of the emissionsreduction rebellion, but their battle plans are not judged equally by Canadians. While two-thirds (64 per cent) of the country says the provinces should have the final say on carbon pricing and reduction programs, opinions over these two provinces’ courses of attack diverge.

Nationally, support for the Moe government’s court challenge over whether the federal government has jurisdiction in this matter stands at nearly three-quarters (72 per cent). It’s even higher in Saskatchewan itself (88 per cent), as the province fights what it calls a “one-size-fits all” federal plan and promises instead to reduce emissions through carbon capture and storage technologies.

Canadians are more circumspect about Ford moving to cancel the cap-and-trade program Ontario had been participating in with Quebec and California. Nationally, they are evenly divided over whether Ford’s decision is right. He fares only a little better among Ontarians, where slightly more than half back his backing away from cap and trade (55 per cent).

Why the difference in attitudes toward the two provinces? As with everything, politics plays a role.

Voters who supported the federal Conservatives in 2015 are significantly more likely to give provincial jurisdiction primacy and oppose any form of carbon pricing. Those who chose the NDP or Liberals are more likely to support it.

Considering that Saskatchewan (and Alberta) are Conservative strongholds nationally, and considering that despite the fall in NDP and Liberal fortunes at the provincial level, Ontario is still home to strong left-ofcentre support, political preferences go some distance to explaining the differing assessments of each plan within these provinces. But it doesn’t explain why, even in regions of the country that support some form of carbon pricing, people still take Saskatchewan’s side in this fight.

In a confederation, Moe’s argument that the provinces themselves know best how to balance the needs of the environment and the economy likely resonates well. Plus, he has an actual proposal for reducing emissions. In contrast, while Ontario is also asserting itself legally and rhetorically, Ford’s government does not appear to have a plan to replace cap and trade with some other carbon-emissions reducing scheme.

What should Trudeau and his advisers take from this? Between asylum seekers at the border and the pipeline file, the Prime Minister’s Office has had to, or is being called upon to, flex its own jurisdictional muscles a lot these days. On carbon, however, it may be better advised to put the dumbbells down and try some stretching instead.

Arguably, the Liberal brand still carries enough strength in Ontario to fight Ford on his turf. But remember, the more resonant argument for Canadians is not “do nothing ” on reducing carbon emissions. It’s “let the provinces do it their own way.”

Manitoba and the United Conservative Party in Alberta, meanwhile, are watching what happens very carefully. In New Brunswick, Premier Brian Gallant is determined to price carbon as his province sees fit.

If Trudeau doesn’t want to open another battle on a new front, with new combatants jumping into the fray, détente with provinces wishing to implement their own plans may well be the best way forward.