GETTING THE NEW TRADE DEAL RATIFIED BY THE U.S. HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES COULD PROVE TO BE A SIGNIFICANT HURDLE. THE MOST PROMINENT PESSIMIST ON THE INTENTIONS OF CONGRESS? TRUMP HIMSELF.
The smiles were wide and the relief was palpable in Ottawa on Monday as Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced a renegotiated North American trade deal.
But while the agreement marks the end of a year-long negotiating slog, and certainly warrants some celebration, to observers in the United States they were the smiles of people who’ve never dealt with the United States Congress.
Getting the deal ratified by the House of Representatives in the United States, which could soon be controlled by a Democratic Party hostile to U.S. President Donald Trump, could be a significant hurdle in the way of the deal becoming a reality.
The most prominent pessimist on the intentions of Congress? That would be Trump himself, who told reporters on Monday that’s he’s “not at all confident” that the deal will make it through the U.S. legislative body.
“Anything you submit to Congress is trouble no matter what,” said Trump.
In Canada, the situation is made easier by the Liberals’ majority government, which should ratify the deal with ease. In Mexico, though the current government lost an election midway through the negotiations, the incoming administration appears to be content with the deal. It’s a different story in the United States, where the Republican grasp on power could soon be somewhat diminished.
It’s no sure thing, but popular vote polling suggests the Democrats are poised for a strong showing in the midterm elections in early November. That could give them control of the House, which must ratify the new trade deal before it takes effect.
In a stark warning about the road ahead, Rep. Richard Neal, a Democratic member on the House Ways and Means Committee, released a statement on Monday declaring that “the bar for supporting the new NAFTA will be high.”
Democratic opposition to the deal could come in two ways, either through principled opposition to the trade deal or as part of a political effort to rob Trump of victories. Trump himself seemed to anticipate this opposition, saying Monday that he expected the Democratic position to be: “Trump likes it so we’re not going to approve it.”
As Neal mentioned in his statement, Democrats were highly skeptical of the original NAFTA deal and there is still a protectionist streak running through the left wing of the party. That may be shifting, though, as during Barack Obama’s time as president the Democrats embraced free trade through negotiations on the Trans-Pacific Partnership deal, from which Trump withdrew.
“This is a different era. The Democrats are the party of TPP and this deal looks a lot like TPP,” said Laura Dawson, director of the Wilson Center’s Canada Institute
Dawson said that even if the Democratic leadership embraces the USMCA — the new name of the renegotiated NAFTA — it’s possible they could have trouble wrangling votes on the left, allowing extreme factions on the left and right to team up and reject the trade agreement.
It’s also possible that the Democrats employ a strategy of all-out opposition to Trump.
Rejecting the USMCA and robbing Trump of a big victory may be tempting, Dawson said it would be tough for House representatives to turn down the economic gains the trade deal brings.
“Now every member of Congress is aware of the jobs that depend on NAFTA at a granular level in their district,” said Dawson.
If the deal isn’t ratified, the countries would revert to the original NAFTA deal, but Trump could also raise the stakes by threatening to withdraw from the original deal if the House refuses to pass the new version.
Geoffrey Gertz, a fellow at the Brookings Institute, said it all depends on the political calculations made by the Democrats if they seize control of the House.
There’s pressure on the left for impeachment proceedings against Trump and, even if the Democrats don’t go that far, they can launch investigations into virtually any nook and cranny of the Trump administration. At that point, getting anything else through the House becomes a tricky matter of time management.
“To get this deal through would require a concerted effort to put it on the agenda and marshal it through the Congress,” said Gertz.
“Congress does have limited bandwidth,” he said.