Economic worries remain despite upbeat job figures

Martial Simard is one of many Calgarians cast adrift by an embattled energy industry to seek employment wherever they can find it.

On Friday, news that 24,000 jobs were created in Alberta last month along with lower unemployment numbers couldn’t shake his concerns and those of some economists over a diminished economic outlook.

Statistics Canada revealed employment growth in November that surprised some economists, along with a one percentage point drop in Alberta’s jobless rate to 6.3 per cent.

Calgary ’s jobless rate fell slightly to 7.9 per cent from 8.2 per cent, while national unemployment dropped to 5.6 per cent, the lowest level since 1976.

Even so, chemical engineer Simard, who recently worked at a local golf course and has undergone training as a carrier and mail sorter with Canada Post, viewed those improvements skeptically.

“The jobs are not as good as they were before ... you have to find something else,” said Simard, 45, who was laid off in the oilpatch in April 2016.

“A lot of people have run out of employment insurance and don’t show up in those figures.”

Economists like ATB’s Todd Hirsch say a closer look at those StatsCan numbers reveal a provincial and Calgary economy that’s still awaiting a boost.

“It was the month we’ve been watching the oil price collapse and I was expecting a negative job report and instead you get this astoundingly strong number of 24,000 jobs,” said Hirsch.

“But it’s always better to look at the 12-month comparison, then you look at the sectors where jobs are created.”

Since November 2017, Hirsch noted the health care/social assistance field saw 20,300 new jobs while the service sector added 41,200 positions.

“For the most part, those aren’t the really high-paying jobs like the energy sector,” said Hirsch.

Alberta’s natural resources sector, which includes lumber, quarrying, fishing and oil and gas, added 4,800 positions over the past year but just 600 in the last month.

The recent crushing oil price squeeze, which has seen some relief in the past week, could see even those modest gains wiped out and more, said Hirsch.

And a lack of other good economic news could only exacerbate that, he added.

“If there’s nothing positive on the pipelines going forward, I do think we’re set for more layoffs in the energy patch,” he said.

The StatsCan figures are generally positive, along with the fact full-time employment increased while part-time work fell, said Ron Kneebone, an economist with the University of Calgary’s School of Public Policy.

But a worrisome trend in Alberta is the average duration of unemployment, which increased from 20.8 weeks in October to 23.5 weeks in November.

“That’s a big jump, people who are getting jobs are the people who were unemployed for a short period of time and those not getting jobs are unemployed for a long time,” said Kneebone, adding a decade ago a seven- to 10-week jobless period was the norm.

That number hit a peak of 25 weeks in June 2017, he said, and had been falling until last month, a worrisome change.

Those left on the sidelines for a lengthy duration, especially if they’re older, risk permanent unemployment, he said.

A Calgarian who works with local social agencies to develop policy alternatives said the four years since the energy slump began have worn down many affected by it.

“There’s a real sense of ‘Are we ever going to come out of this?’ ” said Franco Savoia, executive director of Vibrant Communities Calgary.

Distress-type counselling and food bank use remain in high demand in Calgary.

While the StatsCan figures do reflect the reality of some employment increases, those are usually jobs that pay considerably less than oilpatch positions that may never return due to increased industry efficiencies, he said.

And last month’s national unemployment rate — 5.6 per cent — has echoes of a past Alberta, he said.

“The national numbers look really good. Typically, that’s what Alberta was,” said Savoia.

The continued economic uncertainty, he said, makes considering the idea of a provincial guaranteed income program all the more relevant.