JETS WALK FINE LINE TRYING TO SIGN LAINE
Finnish winger mired in a slump, but he could still reach 40 goals
With Auston Matthews and William Nylander having both signed extensions, the focus in Toronto shifts to re-signing Mitch Marner and Kasperi Kapanen.
In Winnipeg, the laundry list of pending free agents is a lot longer — and more complicated.
Patrik Laine, Kyle Connor and Jacob Trouba are all in the final year of their contracts. And though the team still has control over them, getting them all under the salary cap is going to be tricky.
Let’s focus on Laine, who could be the biggest financial hurdle.
The 20-year-old winger selected one spot after Matthews in the 2016 NHL Entry Draft might be the best pure sniper since Alex Ovechkin. He had 36 goals as a rookie, finished second in the Rocket Richard Trophy race with 44 goals last year and is on pace for almost 40 goals this season. His .5 goals per game is on par with Matthews’ .53 goals per game.
But he’s having an awful contract year, with 35 points in 53 games, including four goals since the start of December. That’s not the kind of production you reward with a five-year deal worth US$11.6 million annually (the deal Matthews signed).
As of now, there’s no chance Laine gets even close to that number — especially with top Jets goal-scorer Mark Scheifele earning just $6.125 million.
Unlike Matthews, Laine is not the best player on his team. He’s not even among the top-three forwards. He’s a second-line winger. And he’s a streaky one, having mustered just one goal in his past 15 games. Worse yet, he’s proving to be one-dimensional.
If Laine isn’t scoring, he isn’t doing much to help the team. He has just 10 assists this season, including three during his fiveweek goal drought. And he has a team-worst minus-15 rating (the next-worst player is a minus-6).
There’s a good chance Laine will break out of his slump — he had 18 goals in November — and challenge Ovechkin in the scoring race. But even then, he’s got company.
Connor, who had a breakout season with 31 goals last year, has 22 goals and 42 points in 53 games alongside Scheifele and Blake Wheeler. Look for him to get $6-7 million.
As for Laine, he will demand even more money. And if the Jets found him another Paul Stastny to play with at the trade deadline, he might deserve it. But as it stands, his best bet might be a two-year bridge contract.
It gives the Jets some flexibility to try to re-sign Trouba in a year when Wheeler’s cap hit jumps from $5.6 million to $8.25 million. And it allows Laine, who once believed he was every bit as good as Matthews, to prove he can be a franchise player.
TAKE IT OR LEAVE IT
■ It’s worth noting that while Laine has struggled to score, he still has 25 goals in 53 games. At this point last year, he had 24 goals. Two years ago, he was at 28. Here’s betting he ends up with 40.
■ If I’m Jets GM Kevin Cheveldayoff, the No. 1 priority at the trade deadline is finding Laine a centre. Whether it’s Matt Duchene, Derick Brassard or Brayden Schenn, the team won’t get anywhere close to the Cup final with Bryan Little centring the second line.
■ Someone tossed an Oilers jersey onto the ice during Edmonton’s 6-2 collapse Tuesday against the Blackhawks. But until fans start flinging frozen waffles, you haven’t really hit rock bottom.
■ A total of 201 players were selected ahead of Toronto’s Andreas Johnsson in the 2013 NHL Draft that saw Nathan MacKinnon go first overall. Six years later, the seventh-round pick, selected 10 spots from the bottom, is tied for third in rookie scoring with 12 goals and 26 points. That’s the definition of drafting and developing.
HERE’S ONE FOR YOU
■ The combined salaries of Toronto’s top-two centres (Auston Matthews and John Tavares) will be a league-high $22.634-million next year. In Calgary, you can get the entire top line (Sean Monahan, Johnny Gaudreau and Elias Lindholm), plus the No. 2 centre (Mikhael Backlund) for $23.325-million.
■ There’s a bit of panic in Buffalo now that the Sabres, who rode a 10-game winning streak in November, are in danger of missing the post-season. I get that Buffalo fans are impatient. But keep in mind this is a team that finished dead last a year ago. That they have already eclipsed last season’s win total is a major step in the right direction.
■ How many games do you have to play to win the Calder Trophy? Because if rookie goalie Carter Hart (10-5-1), who is on a seven-game winning streak, gets the Flyers into the playoffs, he’s going to get a lot of votes.
FOR WHAT IT’S WORTH
■ It could be a weird year when it comes to individual awards. The best players are not necessarily on the best teams. Connor McDavid and Patrick Kane, who are tied for second in league scoring with 78 points each, could both be Hart Trophy finalists in a year when neither team is expected to make the playoffs. The same goes for Vancouver’s Elias Pettersson, who is up for the Calder Trophy as the top rookie, and Vezina Trophy candidate John Gibson of Anaheim.
■ Someone please explain why Nashville spent a second- and a seventh-round pick to acquire Brian Boyle and Cody McLeod in separate trades on Wednesday. The team lost to Winnipeg in the second round last year because of an inability to score — not because it wasn’t tough enough.
■ Hey Carolina, if you’re going to spend your off-hours choreographing ridiculous post-game celebration dances, then you deserve to have opposing players, like ex-Canes forward Elias Lindholm, mock you after a loss. It comes with the territory.
WACKY WILD CARD RACE
What do the Edmonton Oilers, Arizona Coyotes, Chicago Blackhawks and Anaheim Ducks all have in common?
They have the second-fewest points in the Western Conference. At the same time, they are only three points back of a playoff spot. Huh?
Welcome to the wild and wacky wild card race, where the worse you play the better it seems your odds are of making the playoffs.
Seven teams are separated by just three points in their quest for the final playoff spot in the West. Normally, this would be a positive sign of how competitive the standings are. Instead, it’s a reminder of how watered down the wild card race has become.
Not a single one of the seven is on a pace to reach 90 points — the magical number usually needed for the post-season. None is even close.
Last year, it took 95 points to make the playoffs. This year, the Canucks have 54 points in 54 games — an 82-point pace that would be the lowest since the New York Islanders qualified in 2002-03 with a 35-34-11-2 record and 83 points.
It’s not like this in the East, where the Blue Jackets are holding down the final wild card spot with 61 points, with the Sabres (58 points) and Hurricanes (58 points) giving chase.
If the Canucks (54 points) were in the East, they would be 12th.
Instead, despite losing seven of the past 11 games, they are clinging to the final wild card spot. The teams giving chase are no better. Colorado (51 points) has three wins in 17 games, Edmonton (51 points) is on a six-game losing streak and Anaheim (51 points) has lost 17 of its past 19.
So what do you do if you’re a GM ahead of the Feb. 25 trade deadline? Do you become a buyer? After all, as bad as things look, you can’t really cut bait when a playoff spot is possible.
PRIME PLAYER OUTLOOKS
By signing a five-year contract — rather than the maximum eight years — with the Toronto Maple Leafs, Auston Matthews will become an unrestricted free agent at the age of 26 instead of 29. Those three years could be important, considering most players do most of their damage in their mid-20s.
Here’s a look at how three other NHL stars performed from ages 22-26 compared to 27-29:
Sidney Crosby
Ages 22-26: Won a Rocket Richard Trophy with 51 goals when he was 22, was named MVP by his peers at 24, and won a scoring title and Hart Trophy at 25. But also missed 119 games due to injury.
Ages 27-29: His points per game average dropped from 1.43 to 1.11, but Crosby won back-toback Stanley Cups — and playoff MVPs — when he was 28 and 29, as well as a Rocket Richard Trophy.
Alex Ovechkin
Ages 22-26: Won the Rocket Richard and Hart Trophy when he was 22 and again at 26, plus was named MVP by his peers at 25. But the last time he cracked the 100-point mark was as a 23-year-old.
Ages 27-29: Ovechkin enjoyed three straight years of reaching the 50-goal mark, in which he picked up three Rocket Richard Trophies as the league’s top goal-scorer. But his overall production dropped below a point per game pace. He wouldn’t win the Stanley Cup until after his 30th birthday.
Unlike Matthews, Laine is not the best player on his team. He’s not even among the top-three forwards. He’s a second-line winger.
Patrick Kane
Ages 22-26: Though he won a Stanley Cup when he was still on his entry-level contract, Kane won twice more at ages 24 and 26. Injuries forced him to miss 44 games in that span, but he still averaged 1.01 points per game. Ages 27-29: The team success dried up, with the Blackhawks failing to advance past the first round. But Kane has never been better from an individual perspective. He scored a career-best 106 points as a 27-year-old, winning the scoring title and MVP.