Poll finds anger, alienation failing to equate to votes for separation

While Alberta’s frustration with Ottawa runs rampant, less than 25 per cent of the province supports separation, stated a new poll.

The Thinkhq online poll of 1,236 Albertans conducted from Oct. 4 to 7 suggests the Justin Trudeau Liberals will suffer a severe shellacking in our province on Monday with 71 per cent of respondents saying federal government priorities have hurt Alberta.

And while 69 per cent of those surveyed say they empathize with separatist sentiment, 23 per cent say they’d vote to secede from Canada — the majority of them Conservative supporters.

The poll shows 59 per cent would opt to remain in Canada with a further 17 per cent undecided.

“Disdain for the federal government in Alberta is rising and sits alarmingly high today,” said Thinkhq president Marc Henry. “For most alienated Albertans, leaving isn’t an acceptable answer, so we can expect these sentiments to drive political events in other ways.”

That frustration would likely increase support for a strong provincial government “to act as a foil to the feds in Alberta’s interests,” added Henry.

A re-elected Liberal government could well heighten feelings of alienation in Alberta, while a Conservative victory could ease those sentiments, he said.

But that would depend on what follows, said Henry.

“If a Conservative party government is unable or unwilling to address feelings of alienation in Alberta, it would likely be a catalyst for a new federal party in the style of the Reform party,” said the pollster.

Support for separatism is weakest in Edmonton and strongest in central and northern Alberta, said the poll, and is more likely to appear among those aged 55 and over and among people with less education.

A Calgary Liberal candidate said that he has encountered plenty of anti-grit views on the campaign trail.

But hasn’t heard any separatist sentiment on doorsteps.

“There’s no doubt I’ve met lots of Conservatives, Trudeau-bashers and lots of people unhappy with the Liberal government in Ottawa,” said Todd Kathol, who’s running in Calgary—rocky Ridge.

“But I’d never heard people being in favour of separating … My sense is the opposite, that even the angriest folks I talk to really care about Canada.”

Kathol said he understands that frustration.

“We’ve been steady contributors for decades and we’re in need of some help in our key industry ... I can see wanting a fairer deal, it’s legitimate,” he said.

But Kathol said he also wonders how much of that separatist sentiment is due to “sabre-rattling by (Premier) Jason Kenney.”

He said most Albertans rightly view their country positively and for good reason.

“Canada is the envy of the world, you can read survey after survey saying that,” said Kathol.

Albertans’ penchant for separatism is probably overstated, said Mount Royal University political communications professor David Taras.

“If you asked, ‘Do you think it’d be a good idea to need a visa to go to Kelowna,’ you might get a different response,” he said.

“Albertans love Canada — just be here on Canada Day or during the Olympics when we’re playing the U.S. in a gold medal final.”

But he said numbers showing major dissatisfaction with Ottawa are close to the findings of other election polls.

“The Liberals will be wiped out here (in Alberta), literally wiped out,” said Taras.

The federal Liberals currently hold three seats in Alberta — one in Calgary and two in Edmonton.

A July poll of 1,500 respondents done by Abacus Data suggested 25 per cent of Albertans favoured separatism, just short of 28 per cent holding the same sentiment in Quebec.