Battle for donors a lesson in Canadian geography

Mackay big in East, O’toole tops West, Ontario up for grabs

OTTAWA • First-quarter Conservative leadership fundraising data shows Erin O’toole biggest advantage is in Alberta and B.C., while Peter Mackay is stronger in Atlantic Canada and possibly Quebec.

Ontario is more of a mixed bag for the two frontrunners; Mackay raised the most money in the province, while O’toole has more individual donors.

In the big picture, there does not appear to be a runaway winner and it may be support from voters of the other two candidates, Leslyn Lewis and Derek Sloan, that makes the difference in crowning a winner on the ranked ballot.

Donations do not necessarily predict how the vote will break down, but they do give a good indication of where candidates have the most support. The fundraising data shows the postal code for where donations came from for each candidate in the period ending March 31.

Overall, Mackay raised $1,045,851 in the first quarter, O’toole raised $784,997, Lewis took in $447,646, while Sloan raised $410,263.

The data shows O’toole had about 800 more contributors than Mackay (4,200 to 3,400), but this may be less significant than it appears. For one thing, the number of people who donate in campaigns is only a small percentage of the number of people who cast votes.

The geographical breakdown also shows O’toole’s lead in donors is heavily concentrated in the two western provinces, while Mackay dominated in his home province of Nova Scotia. O’toole topped Mackay by 460 donors in Alberta, 327 in B.C., and 302 in Ontario, while Mackay beat O’toole by 256 donors in Nova Scotia and had the most donors in every Quebec region and every Atlantic province. However, O’toole still had a small overall fundraising lead in Quebec.

Lewis made a strong showing with donors in Western Canada, having the most contributors in Saskatchewan and second most in Alberta and B.C. Sloan had the most donors in the Bible belt of southwestern Ontario. Both Sloan and Lewis are heavily backed by social conservative groups.

O’TOOLE’S LEAD IN DONORS IS

HEAVILY CONCENTRATED

IN THE

TWO WESTERN

PROVINCES.

In the leadership race every riding is weighted equally by points, so piling up your votes in a few areas doesn’t help you overall if you lose many other ridings by smaller margins. Geography also matters: while many Alberta ridings saw more than a thousand votes cast in the 2017 Conservative leadership race, many Quebec ridings saw less than 50 votes.

With just a couple dozen votes in a Quebec riding (or a Newfoundland or Nunavut riding), you can win the same number of points as winning an Alberta riding by hundreds of votes.