Yankees would benefit most from MLB’S realignment, short-season proposal
Plan would throw previous projections out the window, writes Neil Greenburg.
Major League Baseball is reportedly discussing “a radical plan” that would eliminate the traditional American and National Leagues for 2020 and realign all six divisions for an abbreviated season. The proposal is one of many being considered, but it’s one of the most interesting in that it would reshape the baseball landscape and significantly alter pre-season projections.
The three new divisions would be based on geography and teams would play only against the other clubs in their division, completing a regular-season schedule of about 100 games before engaging in an expanded playoff. The divisions would look like this:
East: Baltimore Orioles, Boston Red Sox, Miami Marlins, New York Mets, New York Yankees, Philadelphia Phillies, Pittsburgh Pirates, Tampa Bay Rays, Toronto Blue Jays and Washington Nationals
Central: Atlanta Braves, Chicago Cubs, Chicago White Sox, Cincinnati Reds, Cleveland Indians, Detroit Tigers, Kansas City Royals, Milwaukee Brewers, Minnesota Twins and St. Louis Cardinals
West: Arizona Diamondbacks, Colorado Rockies, Houston Astros, Los Angeles Angels, Los Angeles Dodgers, Oakland Athletics, San Diego Padres, San Francisco Giants, Seattle Mariners and Texas Rangers
As you can imagine, that would throw pre-season projections out the window. The biggest beneficiaries of this proposed plan would be the Yankees. Gerrit Cole, their new ace, is expected to be the most valuable pitcher in baseball per Fangraphs’ wins above replacement. Cole will join a starting five that should also include Masahiro Tanaka, James Paxton, J.A. Happ and Jordan Montgomery. Only the Nationals, also in the division, are projected to have a better starting rotation.
The Yankees’ lineup is also expected to mash. They hit 306 home runs last season (one fewer than Minnesota for the most in the majors in 2019) without sluggers Aaron Judge (102 games played) and Giancarlo Stanton (18 games played) in the lineup for long stretches. Second baseman DJ Lemahieu, shortstop Gleyber Torres, catcher
Gary Sanchez, outfielder Brett Gardner, first baseman Luke Voit and third baseman Gio Urshela round out a lineup expected to be among baseball’s best.
The Bronx Bombers were projected to win 96 games this year over 162 games (a .593 winning percentage) and easily dominate the AL East division with a cushion as large as seven games over the Rays, their closest division rival. It’s possible the Pirates and Marlins join the Blue Jays and the perennial bottom-dweller Orioles as sub-. 500 clubs that will litter the Yankees’ new schedule, pushing New York’s win rate to 67 per cent over a 100-game season in their proposed division. No other team is expected to see more games won per 100 games than the Yankees under this plan. Here are three other teams who benefit from the realignment.
CLEVELAND INDIANS
Cleveland would have been in a dogfight with Minnesota for the AL Central crown plus Tampa Bay, Oakland and the Angels for a wild-card spot, giving the Indians a 43 per cent chance to make the playoffs in 2020.
Under the proposed realignment plan, the Indians are expected to finish second in the new Central, just a game behind the Twins, thanks to the introduction of a slightly below-average team, the Cardinals (18th), to an already weak cast of opponents from the original division in the Tigers (28th) and Royals (25th).
OAKLAND ATHLETICS
Manager Bob Melvin and the Athletics probably won’t dethrone the Dodgers or Astros at the top of this division, but they have everything they need to be the third-best team in the newly constructed West.
Most of the Oakland team that won 97 games last year returns, including shortstop Marcus Semien, who led the team with 7.6 wins above replacement, and third baseman Matt Chapman, second on the team with 6.1 wins above replacement.
Pitcher Jesus Luzardo had shoulder problems that delayed his debut last season, but the 22-year-old turned heads in spring training and won’t be the only hard-throwing, left-handed pitcher on the roster. Sean Manaea has been working with Randy Johnson on a slider and A.J. Puk, a rookie who struck out at least 29 per cent of batters at every stop in the minors, gets extra time to rehabilitate a shoulder injury.
MILWAUKEE BREWERS
The Brewers underwent a makeover this winter. Yasmani Grandal and Mike Moustakas were lost in free agency and various trades and other off-season moves added many players to the 40-man roster who weren’t with the organization a year ago.
Everyday players Avisail Garcia, Jedd Gyorko, Ryon Healy, Eric Sogard and Justin Smoak were brought in as free agents, as were pitchers Brett Anderson, Josh Lindblom and David Phelps. Second baseman Eric Lauer, catcher Omar Narvaez and pitcher Eric Lauer were acquired via trade. Luckily, 2019 NL MVP runner-up Christian Yelich returns to anchor a lineup that would now face the Royals, Tigers and the Cardinals.
Yelich, the 2018 NL MVP, was the best hitter in the NL last year (he created runs at a rate that was 74 per cent higher than average after adjusting for league and park effects) while also being one of the best baserunners in the game (league-high 8.5 runs above average via stolen bases and other baserunning plays). He’s expected to be in the running again for the league’s MVP in 2020 with a projected slash line of .303/.394/.570, resulting in 5.3 wins above replacement over a 162-game season.
Instead of scrambling to get ahead of the Cubs and Reds in the NL Central, Milwaukee could coast into the third or fourthbest slot in a revised Central, which could be a playoff slot in 2020. The team makes the playoffs only 28 per cent of the time in simulations where the season started as usual in March.
The Washington Post