Professor calls Stage 2 a ‘trial run’ for Albertans fearing second wave of virus
Opening the door doesn’t mean people will rush in, say experts, when it comes to Alberta’s accelerated relaunch plan that will see gyms, theatres, recreation centres and other heavy traffic businesses reopen.
Caroline Mcdonald-harker, a sociology professor who leads Mount Royal University’s Centre for Community Disaster Research, said people should view Stage 2 as a “trial run” and resume activities gradually to avoid a second wave of deadly COVID-19 cases.
“We are not returning to what was once considered normal,” said Mcdonald-harker.
“People really need to determine how much risk they are willing to encounter, based not only on their physical risk of becoming severely ill if they get it, but also based on their psychological tolerance of this risk.”
Stage 2 of the province’s economic relaunch will begin Friday — a week earlier than initially anticipated — with the reopening of libraries, theatres and certain wellness and personal services.
It also includes some activities originally scheduled under Stage 3, including organized sports and indoor fitness and recreation centres. All include restrictions.
Premier Jason Kenney said the expedited relaunch was made possible because of Albertans’ success in controlling the spread of the novel coronavirus.
However, the threat remains. Mcdonald-harker said people are going to have “mixed feelings” when adjusting to life after isolation. Some will have no problem returning to previous activities but others will be apprehensive.
“It all comes down to people’s risk tolerance,” she said. “(COVID -19) still does pose a significant threat, so much so that we should think of this as a trial where we’re being eased into this next phase of the pandemic, which is learning to live with the virus.”
She said individuals need to gauge how much risk, both physical and psychological, they’re willing to tolerate.
Not only will people need to shift their mindset but they might also need to work through worry, fear and hesitation, all of which are common feelings after about three months of isolation.
“My research on disaster shows that people do have psychosocial impacts, often leading to mental-health challenges like anxiety, depression and PTSD,” said Mcdonald-harker. “Pandemics are no different, and especially in this case where there was an extended period of isolation.”
Comfort will come with time, she added, and will depend on how COVID-19 case numbers in the province fluctuate as people engage in more activities.
The same goes for businesses opening their doors for the first time in months.
David Finch, who teaches marketing at Mount Royal University, said large chains are in a better position to open immediately because they have financial liquidity to do so, but local and small establishments might take a more cautious approach.
He’s heard estimates as high as 50 per cent of the amount of organizations that are at risk of declaring insolvency by year’s end. For those businesses, reopening might be the only option in an attempt to turn a profit.
“They may not be comfortable, but it’s that or shut down the business,” said Finch, adding that there is already strain on businesses because many are increasing operational costs related to safety and sanitation but are not able to welcome back the same number of guests because of physical distancing.
“What we are going to see, and what we’ve seen, is the vast majority of small, local businesses had no e-commerce at all and didn’t have the ability to pivot,” said Finch.
“That will contribute to a permanent reset, I believe, because people are going to start to be wary of building business models that have no ability to adapt if this happens again.”
From a consumer’s perspective, he said confidence will come back as perceptions of risk and safety change over time. It will also depend on people’s personal fears in regards to contracting the virus and spreading it, and if a second wave washes over Alberta.