Draft lottery offers hope for NHL’S dregs
Contrary to what the tin-hat conspiracy theorists might think, the National Hockey League does not want the New Jersey Devils or the Detroit Red Wings or the Los Angeles Kings to win the draft lottery on Friday night.
But with how messy this year’s draft lottery could become, here’s guessing that commissioner Gary Bettman is probably hoping for the simplest result possible.
We would only get that if all three picks are awarded to any of the bottom seven teams. If not — if Montreal or Chicago or some other “placeholder” team that is ranked 17th through 24th in the standings and still in the hunt for the Stanley Cup happens to end up with a No. 1, 2, or 3 overall pick — then things will get very complicated.
A second draft lottery will be held sometime after the play-in round of the post-season, where the eight losing teams will be entered into a draw for any of the picks that were won by a “placeholder” team in the first draft lottery. If two bottom-seven teams, such as Detroit and Buffalo, win the No. 1 and No. 3 picks, but a “placeholder” team such as Arizona wins the No. 2 pick, then only the No. 2 pick will be redrawn.
It’s a bit confusing, which is why it obviously would be better if Detroit, Ottawa or any of the bottom-seven teams win all three picks on Friday and we won’t need a second lottery.
Of course, considering that Chicago jumped from 20th to third overall last year and Carolina improved from 21st to second overall in 2018, don’t be surprised if we end up with one.
Here is a look at the bottom-six teams (San Jose, which finished with the third-worst record, traded its pick to Ottawa) that are vying for the chance to select top prospect Alexis Lafreniere and why each badly needs to win:
DETROIT RED WINGS
Odds of winning: 18.5 per cent
Worst-case scenario: Fourth overall
Why they need to win: Did you watch any Red Wings games this year? The team won just 17 games. With a new arena to fill, Detroit needs someone exciting worth watching. Lafreniere could be that guy. Along with last year’s first-round pick Moritz Seider, they could be the modern-day equivalent of Steve Yzerman and Nicklas Lidstrom. At least, one can hope.
What will likely happen: Detroit will end up with its first No. 1 pick since Joe Murphy in 1986.
OTTAWA SENATORS
Odds of winning: 25 per cent combined (13.5 per cent for their own pick and 11.5 per cent for the pick acquired from San Jose)
Worst-case scenario: Fifth and sixth overall
Why they need to win: No team has better odds than Ottawa, which finished with the second-worst record and also has the pick belonging to the 29thplace San Jose Sharks. And after watching so much talent leave the city in the last couple of years, the Sens need to make the most of those picks. Selecting No. 1 and No. 2 is obviously the bestcase scenario and would gift the team with Lafreniere and Quinton Byfield, which would sort of be like if Washington ended up with Alex Ovechkin and Evgeni Malkin in 2004.
What will likely happen: The Senators will end up with fifth and sixth picks, causing Eugene Melnyk to conduct a Csi-style forensic investigation to prove someone tampered with the lottery balls.
LOS ANGELES KINGS
Odds of winning: 9.5 per cent
Worst-case scenario: Seventh overall
Why they need to win: Drew Doughty and Anze Kopitar are still in their prime, so adding Lafreniere to a team that scored the second-fewest goals last season could turn this rebuild into more of a retool, especially if Los Angeles’ pool of prospects is as good as everyone believes it is.
What will likely happen: The Kings, who selected Doughty at the No. 2 spot in 2008, use the second overall pick on defenceman Jamie Drysdale.
ANAHEIM DUCKS
Odds of winning: 8.5 per cent
Worst-case scenario: Eighth overall
Why they need to win: The Ducks have never had the No. 1 pick. The last time they drafted in the top five was when they selected Bobby Ryan with the No. 2 overall pick in 2005. They are way past due. With Ryan Getzlaf in his late 30s, Anaheim needs a star to build around while goalie John Gibson is still in his prime.
What will likely happen: The Ducks will end up with seventh overall pick and select Swedish wild card Lucas Raymond, who goes on to become the David Pastrnak of the draft.
NEW JERSEY DEVILS
Odds of winning: 7.5 per cent
Worst-case scenario: Ninth overall
Why they need to win: The Devils traded away Taylor Hall, Blake Coleman, Andy Greene and Wayne Simmonds last season, leaving the team with P.K. Subban and No. 1 overall picks Nico Hischier and Jack Hughes and not much else. Adding Lafreniere would give them a younger version of Hall and an entry-level cost that would also allow the Devils to be active in free agency.
What will likely happen: They drop down from sixth to ninth and select Russian goalie Yaroslav Askarov, who might be the best goalie prospect since Carey Price or that other guy who used to play in net for New Jersey a long time ago.
BUFFALO SABRES
Odds of winning: 6.5 per cent
Worst-case scenario: 10th overall
Why they need to win: The Sabres fired pretty much all of their scouting staff last week, so picking anywhere other than in the top three could result in a bust that would make Alex Nylander and Casey Mittelstadt look like sure things. Imagine putting Lafreniere on Jack Eichel’s wing? Or better yet, imagine how much deeper the Sabres would be offensively if they actually had a legit scoring threat on a line that Eichel wasn’t centring?
What will likely happen: The Sabres end up with the 10th overall pick and trade it for someone who can step in and help the team right now.