FOUR PATHS TO VICTORY
Tory leadership down to final lap
JOE BIDEN CAN UNIFY THE AMERICAN
PEOPLE BECAUSE HE’S SPENT HIS LIFE
FIGHTING FOR US. I’M HONORED
TO JOIN HIM AS OUR PARTY’S
NOMINEE FOR VICE PRESIDENT.
— U.S. SENATOR KAMALA HARRIS
The race to replace Andrew Scheer as the Conservative party’s next leader is down to its final two weeks, but it’s still far from clear how it ends.
Although the race has mostly been thought of as a two-way battle between Peter Mackay and Erin O’toole, the rise of Leslyn Lewis as a strong contender has added a twist to how the ranked ballot could play out. The organizational strength of Derek Sloan may also have an effect.
Voting, which is taking place entirely by mail-in ballot, must conclude by Aug. 21. For the morbidly curious, there are already live video feeds of the ballot vault and various counting rooms being streamed on the party’s website. The results will likely be announced at an event in Ottawa on Sunday, Aug. 23, but party officials say that’s still subject to change if health guidelines or ballot counting logistics don’t allow for it.
A candidate needs 50 per cent of the vote to win. If nobody reaches that threshold, the last-place candidate is eliminated and his or her voters’ next choices are counted. There are plenty of possibilities for how the ranked ballot could unfold. If the race is close, the result will swing on who finishes third and how that candidate’s votes are redistributed. This means there could be three rounds of results before a victor is crowned.
National Post breaks down the paths to victory for each of the candidates: