Running the Numbers

When the Going Gets Tough

Every year millions of runners participate in long-distance races. But for longer distances such as marathons and ultras, is reaching the end a foregone conclusion? Although everyone can “complete” a 100m-dash, at some point we expect to see percentages drop off.

First, I looked at a 10k and, sure enough, the completion rate is nearly 100 per cent. What about the marathon? Consider the largest in the world, New York City. It turns out that here too exists a surprising success rate. Of the 50,0000 who started, more than 49,500 completed the race, a success rate of about 99 per cent.

It seemed almost too good to be true, so I checked other marathons. The numbers don’t lie. The same success rate is seen in Boston (98 per cent), Ottawa (96 per cent), and Chicago (97 per cent). Perhaps marathons attract a certain never-give-up personality. That is a distinct possibility. Note that these percentages are not gender-specific. It varies, but at the amateur level this is generally a genderneutral topic. If there is a bias, it is in favour of women. More than 85 per cent of women finished the Beijing and London Olympic Marathons, while it was less than 80 per cent for men. Either due to bad pacing or ego, men are more likely to overestimate their potential. Notice too that Olympiccalibre dropout rates are higher than for recreational runners. Since they are testing themselves to a more extreme degree, this may be viewed as expected.

Now, let’s consider a more extreme event than the marathon: climbing Mount Kilimanjaro. Over 35,000 people attempt the feat every year, and there is more than one way to climb this mountain. To scale its 5,900 m peak, one may choose between various five- to eight-day routes (note that ultra phenom Kilian Jornet reached the top in just 5 hours, 23 minutes). What struck me was the massive increase in success as people paced themselves slower. The shortest, fastest routes see only 27 per cent make the summit, while an eightday trek yielded a tripling in successful climbs. Pacing yourself is a serious key to success.

Preparedness is exemplified in other extreme events, too. I found that Lake Placid Ironman participants have a 90 per cent success of getting under the 17-hour time limit. Even the ridiculous 216k Badwater Ultra routinely sees an 80 per cent completion rate. In one of the most extreme events available, climbing Mount Everest, about half of all people will summit (not including Sherpas). These are all good completion numbers, in part due to the motivation of the individuals (and perhaps the very high fees). By contrast, the relatively short (89k) Comrades Marathon sees only 56 per cent of the 23,000 starters reach the end within the 12-hour limit.

We can agree completing the marathon distance, however difficult it feels, is quite achievable by those who try. Extending into ultra distances, failure rates increase dramatically. For this very reason, longer, tougher races are growing popular among those seeking their limits. At the same time, better training and pacing will counteract failure rates at even the most difficult task.