North Korea requires patience, not provocation
North Korean dictator Kim Jong-Un lives by uttering dire threats against South Korea and the United States. He backs up the threats with highly photogenic military parades through the streets of his capital city, missile launches and the occasional underground nuclear test in defiance of United Nations resolutions.
U.S. President Donald Trump has responded to Kim’s latest provocations with counter-intimidation. He and U.S. Vice-President Mike Pence have been saying that if China will not deal with Kim, the U.S. will do it on their own. An anti-missile system has been installed to defend South Korea and an aircraft carrier task force has been filmed steaming toward Korean waters.
If Trump miscalculates and triggers a shooting war with North Korea, the worst damage will be inflicted on North Korea, South Korea, Japan and perhaps China. These near neighbours of North Korea have been living with their annoying neighbour for six decades, since the armistice that stopped the Korean War. The U.S. should be guided by their advice, since they have much more to gain from a wise policy on North Korea and much more to lose from a blunder.
Kim has not yet done enough damage to be worth a war. The neighbours who have been living with this annoyance for 60 years can probably stand it for a few more.
Eventually, a grand settlement will have to be reached among the two Korean governments and their main backers to reunite divided Korea, as divided Germany was reunited, on terms that pose no threat to the neighbours. This is not likely to happen as long as Kim thinks he can keep the game of bluster and intimidation going a little longer.
China has already stopped importing coal from North Korea. This may reduce the rogue nation’s income and it also seems to signal to both Washington and Pyongyang that China is willing to join in raising the economic pressure. But if Trump wants China to turn the pressure higher still, he may have to make it worth China’s while. The Chinese are apparently not as anxious about Kim’s antics as Trump is, even though they have much more at stake.
The Trump administration has said repeatedly that the former policy of diplomatic patience with North Korea is at an end. As a practical matter, however, the administration has not yet shown the world that it has a better idea. At the moment, Kim has every reason to be delighted with the level of anxiety he has aroused in the U.S.
The Trump administration announced on the weekend that it would not be commenting on Kim’s latest failed missile launch. This may mark the beginning of wisdom and a return to the former policy of diplomatic patience. North Korea’s neighbours have learned to be patient with the local madman. Trump may have to achieve the same kind of self-discipline.