Justin Trudeau’s strategic challenges
If an election were to be held today, the Liberals would be re-elected with another majority government, but the election is not being held today
A sure sign of fall to all political junkies is the return of MPs to Ottawa. A new session of parliament has started, the House of Commons is back in session, Question Period has reconvened and the Liberal government of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is confronting a host of strategic challenges.
The immediate reality facing the prime minister is that he is no longer a rookie leader and his government is no longer shiny and new. The Trudeau government is fast approaching the half-way point (first week of November to be exact) in the typical four-year term for a majority government. The next federal election is scheduled, by law, for Oct. 21, 2019.
Rest assured that Justin Trudeau and all of his senior advisors have this date marked in their calendars and that all of their actions over the next two years will be undertaken with this pending election in mind.
All governing parties wish to head into an election with a record of positive accomplishments. They want to be seen by the general public as having led the country well, as having advanced the long-term best interests of the nation, for having managed the economy with a sound business sense all the while demonstrating that they are capable promoters of good social, cultural and environmental policy. They also want to show effective leadership on the world stage.
In short, all governing parties heading into an election seek to demonstrate that they deserve re-election.
The past two years have been relatively good ones for the Trudeau government in that the prime minister and his party benefitted from being new and different from the old and divisive Harper government. Justin Trudeau does have a certain charisma, a cool elegance that has taken him far in his political career. He and his party are still riding high in national public opinion polls and if an election were to be held today, the Liberals would be re-elected with another majority government.
But the election is not being held today. It is still two years off and this government has to manage some very tough strategic issues between now and then.
The economy is always a litmus test for governmental credibility so watch to see how the Liberals address the issue of tax reform. They have been taking a fair bit of heat from the opposition and the business community on their proposed changes to small business tax benefits so don’t be surprised if they soften their stance on this issue, all in the name of supporting the hard-working middle class.
The bigger economic issue, though, is the renegotiation of NAFTA. The federal government has to defend, and be seen to be defending, Canadian economic interests in dealing with Mexico and especially the United States. These negotiations will probably become very turbulent with the Trump administration threatening to cancel the entire NAFTA
agreement. The smart Canadian stance would be to call his bluff.
Cancelling NAFTA would throw the entire North American economy into chaos and recession, something most American political and business leaders would reject. The Canadian government needs to be prepared to work with these people in crafting a deal beneficial to all sides.
Beyond the economy, the Trudeau government needs to demonstrate success on a number of social policies. They need to get the legalization of marijuana right. This means the new reality of legalized pot comes into being in an orderly fashion, approved of by police forces, with governments gaining needed tax revenues.
Progress also needs to be made with the inquiry into Missing and Murdered Indigenous Women and Girls. At the very least Indigenous communities need to feel that they have been listened to and heard. And that their future will be better than their past.
Finally, the government still needs to strike a credible balance between natural resource development and environmental sustainability.
The next election starts now.
“The immediate reality facing the prime minister is that he is no longer a rookie leader and his government is no longer shiny and new.”