Political calendar highlights for 2018
Elections in Quebec, Ontario and Mexico, and U.S. mid-terms up for grabs
As we enter the New Year it’s time to look ahead at some of the known events on the political calendar for 2018.
Elections are always important but this year will be a quiet one for those of us “political junkies” here in Nova Scotia. We just had our provincial election last spring and the next federal election is not due until the fall of 2019. And the next municipal elections in Nova Scotia are not scheduled until 2020.
There will be three provincial elections in this country in 2018, however, involving over half of all Canadians. First up will be Ontario on June 7 when Liberal Premier Kathleen Wynne will face-off against Patrick Brown of the Progressive Conservatives and New Democrat Andrea Horwath.
The Liberals have governed Ontario since 2003 and Wynne has been premier since 2013 so this government is getting a bit long-in-the-tooth by modern Canadian standards. The Liberals secret weapon, however, may be none other than Patrick Brown. His hard-line conservatism may be just enough of a turn-off for many Ontarians that a majority opt to stay with the “devil they know.”
Two other provincial elections are scheduled for the fall. New Brunswickers head to the polls on September 24 as do Quebeckers on October 1. In both cases the odds favour the incumbent Liberal governments – those of premiers Brian Gallant in New Brunswick and of Philippe Couillard in Quebec.
Elections in Quebec always attract national attention with respect to the sovereignty issue and come this fall the big question may not be whether the Couillard Liberal government gets re-elected but who comes second? The stumbling Parti Quebecois or the nationalist but not necessarily separatist Coalition Avenir Quebec led by Francois Legault.
Further afield a number of national elections will make international news in 2018. On March 4, Italians go to the polls and, in typical Italian fashion, they will likely return a hung parliament leading to another centrist minority government. There will be great interest in seeing how well the populist, anti-immigrant and anti-European Union Five Star League does in this vote.
Also in March the most predictable election all year will be held in Russia. You heard it here first. Vladimir Putin will be reelected as Russian president for another six-year term. With the power and authority of a tsar the questions remain whether Putin can revitalize the Russian economy, raise the standard of living of his people and better engage with the world. The answers to these queries are unpredictable.
Of great importance to Canada will be the Mexican elections in July. By this time this vote may be a Mexican referendum on the future of the North American Free Trade Agreement. The NAFTA re-negotiations will dominate much of 2018 and it is possible that United States President Donald Trump will have triggered the beginning of American withdrawal from this agreement by July. The entire North American economy will exist in uncertainty for all of 2018 as these negotiations either continue, or fall apart.
If it’s the latter, the drama will continue within the United States as the American Congress determines whether President Trump can unilaterally scrap NAFTA, all the while watching as various state governors and American business interests highly invested in free trade with Mexico and Canada seek to preserve the agreement.
And all roads lead to Washington, D.C., come November and the American mid-term elections. This will be the first great test of Donald Trump’s presidency as one-third of the United States Senate and all 435 seats in the House of Representatives are up for grabs. If the Republicans lose control of both of these houses, something clearly within the realm of Democratic Party possibility, the impeachment clock will start ticking on Donald Trump.
“This will be the first great test of Donald Trump’s presidency …”