Poll position
New Dawn commissions survey asking residents about CBRM’s next mayor — including its president
New Dawn Enterprises Ltd. commissioned a national polling firm last week seeking, in part, opinions on five potential candidates for the next Cape Breton Regional Municipality mayor’s race, including New Dawn’s president Rankin MacSween, the Cape Breton Post has learned.
The poll also asked CBRM residents questions on whether the CBRM should have more control over economic development efforts, how people would feel about Cape Breton as a separate province, and asked if people think of themselves as a Cape Bretoner first rather than as a Nova Scotian, or vice versa.
Erika Shea, New Dawn’s vice-president of development, confirmed Tuesday the nonprofit community development corporation employed the resources of Ottawa-based polling and market research firm Abacus Data to conduct the survey. She said the telephone survey work was subcontracted to Leger marketing, which conducted the polling out of its Toronto office.
A Cape Breton Post reporter received a call from a Leger representative on July 3.
The five people posed in the survey as potential mayoral candidates were Senator Dan Christmas, provincial Business Minister Geoff MacLellan, CBRM Dist. 8 Coun. Amanda McDougall, former three-term mayor John Morgan and MacSween, a two-time former CBRM mayoral candidate. Respondents were asked whether they have a negative, neutral or positive view of each one of those five.
“We think the names are of five fairly prominent leaders in the community and (there’s) just an interest in knowing where people are, what they’re thinking,” said Shea, who would not disclose the cost of the survey.
“And what sort of attributes (residents) aspire to have in future leaders in the municipality.”
She said New Dawn is “constantly” having discussions on leadership and who would be best to fill the position once current CBRM Mayor Cecil Clarke moves on.
Clarke is seeking the leadership of the Nova Scotia Progressive Conservative Party and has already said he does not plan to seek reelection as mayor in October 2020.
If Clarke wins the PC leadership this fall, a special mayoral election would have to be called.
Shea dismissed the suggestion the poll was exploratory work for MacSween in preparation to launch his third campaign for mayor.
Asked specifically if MacSween planned to run for the mayoralty in the next election, she said, “It’s not part of the conversation right now.”
MacSween wasn’t available to comment on Tuesday.
It’s the third consecutive summer that New Dawn’s board of directors has approved using the services of Abacus Data to conduct surveys — each one of them asking residents about different issues.
Christmas, who was appointed to the Upper Chamber in 2017, initiated a conversation last fall on the issue of autonomy for Cape Breton. He noted in a June op-ed piece in the Post he’s a “dedicated and willing defender of Cape Breton and I believe deeply in its future.”
Shea said New Dawn wanted to explore Christmas’s ideas in greater detail by asking CBRM residents where they stood on the issue and whether the island should pursue “some sort of formal governance structure.”
Each person named in the survey was contacted by the Cape Breton Post for comment. McDougall and MacLellan were the only two to respond to interview requests.
McDougall, a first-term councillor, said it was “truly humbling” to hear people talking about her future in politics.
“Putting my name in the list for mayoral candidates? I think that stems from a lot of social media conversations that had been going on in various online articles,” she said, without denying an ambition to run for the mayor’s job beyond her current four-year term, stating she’s “not there yet” in terms of making a decision.
McDougall raised the ire of Clarke in December following media interviews and a letter to the editor indicating there was a division in council on support for a New Dawn proposal to fund a new Sydney arts centre.
In the letter to the Post she suggested not supporting the centre with a $1.5-million municipal contribution would jeopardize the project and was “tantamount to recklessness” by her fellow council members.
For her comments, McDougall received a public reprimand from the mayor but gained publicity and support from members of the public for standing up to Clarke.
On the provincial scene, MacLellan, the MLA for Glace Bay, has been a steadfast member of Premier Stephen McNeil’s cabinet for nearly five years.
In a cabinet shuffle last week, MacLellan retained his business and trade portfolios and took on the treasury board as he swapped out responsibility for the energy department.
There’s been no speculation of his intention to seek municipal office. But his unwillingness to refute his name on a list of potential mayoral candidates has opened up speculation to his future plans.
“At this point I’m very committed to the people of Glace Bay and my important role at the provincial cabinet table,” MacLellan said when reached by phone on Friday.
“I haven’t put any thought to that particular poll or the question that’s being asked. Obviously, it’s flattering to have your name (mentioned) in a group of people, you know, asking Cape Bretoners what they think about the next mayor, but the results might not be flattering.”
There’s been some speculation that Morgan — who has avoided the limelight since retiring from municipal politics six years ago — could possibly launch a reboot of his successful campaigns in 2000, 2004, and 2008.
In the 2016 municipal election, MacSween lost to Clarke by little more than 1,300 votes.
“We have an interest in understanding how people are viewing different leaders in their community and which type of leadership that (residents) are leaning towards in the mayor’s seat,” said Shea.
She described MacSween’s style of leadership as one that “is premised on putting the community first and enabling and supporting the community to make its own decisions towards a more vibrant and self-reliant future.”
There’s nothing wrong with a private organization like New Dawn polling the public or taking a political stance on an issue, but Cape Breton University political scientist David Johnson urged some caution to how the polling may be perceived in the community.
“That’s fine to push those agendas but be prepared for financial hits if certain provincial governments — not obligated to provide funding — think there’s certain other business-type development organizations here that are more ‘neutral,’ then provincial governments are not obligated to provide funding to New Dawn.”
The inclusion of MacSween’s name in the poll becomes “problematic” for New Dawn given we are living in an age of transparency and accountability, according to Johnson.
“That’s a problem. …An organization should take ownership of their actions and should be proud to be open and transparent,” he said.
The polling representative did not indicate on the phone call the survey was being conducted on behalf of New Dawn Enterprises.
McDougall said the questions were “very interesting” and it would be “useful” to find out the results of the survey.
Those results should be ready prior to the Rev. Greg McLeod memorial lecture series planned for this fall and will be released publicly, Shea said.