Long confinement may be over

The corona-curve has flattened sufficiently in most provinces for their governments to start, oh so carefully, easing the restrictions they put in place – and remarkably, most Canadians adopted – to slow the spread of the virus.

We seem to be moving through the final days of the long confinement and are entering the “what now?” stage of pandemic management, as provinces try to figure out what can safely open, in what order and by how much.

When government and public health leaders talk about a “slow, cautious approach” – the incremental resumption of services, businesses and a bit of fun – take them at their word. This will be a long, slow process.

In Canada, the summer and, almost certainly, the fall of 2020 will pass without many of those things we’ve come to associate with those seasons.

There won’t be crowded beaches or gangs of highspirited fans flocking to sports events. The beaches will open, but the number of people on them will be limited. As for spectator sports, where it’s played at all, it will be in front of a smattering of fans spread apart by social-distancing protocols that will govern human engagement until the dangers of COVID-19 are gone.

If early, tentative steps are successful – as measured mostly by the local trajectory of the disease – yet more liberties that, just a few short months ago were the natural state of being, will become part of life again. But notice that no one is declaring victory.

The virus and COVID-19 will be with us for a long time, according to the experts. Their final demise likely depends on the development of a vaccine, or perhaps another medical breakthrough that effectively treats the illness and reduces its severity and its death toll.

The third way the virus could disappear would be through widespread naturally-acquired immunity. That occurs when a sizeable portion of the population has contracted the disease and built up antibodies to fight it off. They are thought to have immunity.

The third way is fraught with danger and myriad unknowns. If there’s one thing these months of unrelenting information has taught us, it’s how little we really know about this virus, including the extent to which those who’ve had COVID-19 are immune.

Some provinces, like New Brunswick, Prince Edward Island and Newfoundland and Labrador where the outbreak was limited to begin with, are either easing restrictions already or are about to. The same is true across the Prairies and Ontario. Quebec, the province most ravaged by COVID-19, is preparing for a resumption of school, at the elementary level, next week.

Nova Scotia is still wrestling with the tragedy of a severe outbreak at its largest long-term care facility, Northwood in Halifax.

But the province is joining the rest of the country, by beginning to carefully relax some restrictions, most notably on outdoor activities.

Canadians overwhelmingly bought into severe restrictions on the way they live for a couple of good reasons. They were convinced it was necessary to protect both the health system and our most vulnerable citizens. We seem to have achieved the former and failed the latter.

Canadians have also come to know and trust public health officials, like Nova Scotia’s straight-shooting Robert Strang and British Columbia’s Bonnie Henry, a reliable voice of calm and compassion.

Canadians will continue to listen to those trusted voices and our political leaders would be wise to keep them front-and-centre. As restrictions are eased, most Canadians want assurances it’s happening with the full agreement of public health officials.

Every government in Canada has embraced the go-slow, one-step-at-a-time approach because it’s the only approach. A more aggressive, less prudent course risks the worst possible outcome. That’s a resurgence of the virus with new and wide-spread outbreaks of COVID-19, which would necessitate a return to confinement.

The economic damage from a false start down the road to recovery would be the final straw for many businesses. The psychological damage we’d suffer if we began to come out of this, only to be thrust back into near-absolute lockdown, would be devastating.

If we keep heeding the advice of our public health officials, things will get better, very slowly but almost certainly. And a haircut might even be possible before – heaven forbid – a man bun becomes the only option.

This will be a long, slow process.