Making its presence felt
Increases in total deaths versus previous years suggest COVID-19 is adding to Canada’s death toll
TOM BLACKWELL
As frustration mounts over the economically devastating lockdowns imposed across Canada to help contain COVID-19, some Canadians have questioned whether the pandemic is truly a serious threat.
They point to the numbers of people killed in accidents and by chronic diseases like cancer and heart ailments, suggesting those dangers dwarf the coronavirus toll. In the end, some suggest, the result will all be a wash.
But figures obtained from at least one province suggest COVID-19 has added to Canadian mortality in a significant way. Quebec recorded 2,000 more deaths overall in April than the average for the same month in the previous three years, a leap of 35 per cent, provincial figures indicate.
Other provinces have also recorded increases, though much smaller, in the total number of deaths versus previous years, suggesting that COVID-19 is adding to the Canadian death toll, not replacing other types of fatality.
And it indicates that jurisdictions that kept down the number of infections — like B.C. and Alberta — have also lessened the excess deaths, says Prof. Prabhat Jha, a University of Toronto epidemiology professor.
“You see very different trajectories in places that reacted earlier,” he said. “Flattening the curve on mortality definitely does occur with action. How long you can sustain a lockdown is a separate question. But there’s no doubt it has bought time for some settings.”
Quebec has suffered most from the pandemic, with close to 40,000 laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 cases and over 3,100 deaths, the majority of those being among longterm-care home residents.
The national death toll as of Wednesday was 5,167.
The National Post obtained provisional death statistics for two of the four largest and hardest hit provinces. Statistics Canada plans to release its own tabulation of such numbers on Wednesday. B.C. had earlier released the number of excess deaths since the pandemic started. Ontario’s death statistics are currently available only up until 2017, said a spokesman for the Ministry of Government and Consumer Services.
Quebec’s Labor, Employment and Social Solidarity Ministry provided figures for this March and April, as well as the same two months in each of the prior three years.
There were 6,349 deaths in March, 214 or 3.5 per cent more than the average for 2017 to 2019.
The ministry recorded 7,662 deaths this April, which is 2,008 or 35.5 per cent above the average for the previous three years.
The figures for this year represent the number of death certificates received by the agency that month, meaning some deaths could have occurred earlier. But it’s also possible some April deaths were not recorded then.
Quebec’s population growth might account for some of the change, though it increased by only 2.2 per cent from 20172019.
Alberta divulged statistics on the number of deaths per 100,000 residents between January and April, which includes two months in which there were relatively few cases and deaths from COVID-19.
The province recorded 207 overall deaths per 100,000 for the first four months of this year — about 9,100 — versus an average of 204.1 per 100,000 in each of the five years before that. One of those years, 2018, actually had more deaths during the four months than 2020.
Alberta has recorded 118 COVID-19 deaths so far.
B.C. did not provide monthly or quarterly statistics by deadline, but on May 4 it reported there had been an excess of 170 overall deaths on top of what would be expected, with at least 111 of those attributed to COVID19.
More detailed mortality numbers, outlining the age and location of the deceased, are needed to properly analyze the statistics, but it seems clear what is behind the increases, said Sam Harper, an epidemiology professor at McGill University.
“We know that the epidemic is much worse in Quebec than it has been in other provinces,” he said. “It is safe to assume that many if not most of these excess deaths are due to COVID-19, either directly or indirectly.”
The overall mortality statistics in some countries, including the U.S. and the U.K., have actually pointed to there being large numbers of COVID-19 deaths not captured in the official data for various reasons.
But the preliminary figures released now by some provinces suggest that Canada’s COVID statistics have missed few victims of the virus, said Jha.
“It’s broadly consistent with the idea that there is not a vast undercount of deaths,” he said.