Stakes high in U.S. fall elections.

This is the second part of a two-part column. Part 1, entitled “Donald Trump’s worst nightmare,” appeared in the Cape Breton Post on May 27.

The American elections are just under five months away now, with Tuesday, Nov. 3 shaping up to be one of the most anticipated U.S. presidential elections in half a century.

As mentioned in my last column, current polling data consistently shows President Donald Trump trailing Democratic Party presidential contender Joe Biden, and if Trump can’t reverse these numbers he will face an embarrassing defeat come November.

There is more at stake in these elections, however, than just who controls the White House. Under the American constitution, all 435 seats in the federal House of Representatives (the lower house of the United States Congress) are up for election this November as are 35 of the 100 seats in the United States Senate (the Congress’ upper house).

While Congress-persons hold office for only two-year terms, United States Senators serve a six-year term, with Senate elections staggered such that every two years roughly one-third of the Senate faces re-election. So in 2020 35 Senate seats are up for grabs – 33 regular Senate elections for those seats last contested in 2014, plus two special elections in Arizona and Georgia where Senators either died or resigned from office.

And these Senate elections are a big deal for those who closely follow American politics. Back in November 2018 the Democrats won control of the House of Representatives, enabling this House to serve as a “check and balance” on President Trump, even to the point of voting to impeach him in December of 2019.

But the Republicans currently control the Senate, with 53 Republicans facing off against 45 Democrats and two independents (Bernie Sanders and Angus King, who caucus with the Democrats). It is this Republican Senate majority, led by Mitch McConnell, that have loyally supported Trump over the past three and a half years and who acquitted him in his impeachment trial this past January.

Control of the Senate is of unique importance in American federal politics because it is the Senate that votes on foreign treaties and, most significantly, on all federal judicial appointments, including approving new members to the United States Supreme Court.

Over the past five years this Republican controlled Senate voted to deny President Barrack Obama a confirmation vote on his nomination of Merrick Garland for a seat on the Supreme Court. In turn, once Donald Trump became president, the Senate quickly moved to appoint two Trump nominees to this highest of courts – Neil Gorsuch and Brett Kavanaugh.

So, in 2020, if Trump wins again in November and the Republicans maintain control of the White House, look to see more conservative judges appointed to the United States Supreme Court, leading to a continued far-right swing in American jurisprudence, including the eventual outlawing of abortion rights in America.

For Democrats, the stakes are that high. But, if Biden can win the White House and if the Democrats can gain control of the Senate while retaining control of the House of Representatives, then the Democrats can truly begin to undo much of the damage that they perceive to have been done to their country after four years of “Make America Great Again.”

But can the Democrats retake the Senate? Current polling data shows they have a chance but they need to do exceptionally well in November.

Most of the 35 Senate seats up for election this season are viewed to be either safe holds for the Republicans or Democrats. The Republicans will be defending 23 seats, while the Democrats defend 12. And the Democrats will probably lose the seat they currently hold in Georgia, meaning that they need to take four seats away from the Republicans just to get to a 50/50 tie in the Senate.

Be aware, however, that if and when the Senate is deadlocked like this, the vice president, who serves as the Speaker of the Senate is entitled to cast the tie-breaking vote. And if that vice president is a Democrat, then the Democrats control this house.

So, can the Democrats win four Senate seats away from the Republicans? Perhaps. And the four to watch, according to polling data showing very close races between incumbent Republicans and Democratic challengers are: Arizona, Colorado, Maine, and North Carolina.

Watch these states and their Senate elections. These will be close races with so much riding on their outcomes. But if the Democrats can’t pull off this Senate remake, even while winning the White House, look for four more years of bitter deadlock and chaos in American politics. Cry the Beloved Country.