Learn from experience

Damned if you do, damned if you don’t.

Or something like that.

Maybe, damned if you don’t stay on your toes.

As the four Atlantic provinces bask in our extremely low COVID-19 infection rates, and move towards the clear economic necessity of opening businesses and other amenities, it’s worth keeping an eye on the progress of the disease in other parts of North America.

In plenty of places, infection rates are showing not only that things can change, but that they can change remarkably quickly.

Infection rate numbers from a series of U.S. states that have reopened their economies are showing some startling increases: Arizona logged 4,400 new cases in a 72-hour period, and is close to exhausting space in its intensive care units after reopening.

“It was just open it up and then more or less business as usual, with a little bit of window dressing,” Dr. Peter Hotez, the dean for the National School of Tropical Medicine at Baylor College of Medicine, told U.S. public broadcaster National Public Radio (NPR). “This is not an abstract number of cases. We’re seeing people pile into intensive care units.”

Per capita, Arizona’s infection rate is now triple the numbers in New York State — but the state’s governor has said he won’t bring back stay-at-home or shutdown orders.

Other states, including Florida, South Carolina and Arkansas, are also showing steep increases. Texas COVID-19 hospitalizations have increased by 42 per cent since the Memorial Day holiday (May 25).

Texas, Arizona and Florida, by the way, set dubious records by having record highs for new cases this week and, in total, 20 U.S. states are seeing infection numbers rise, along with corresponding increases in hospitalization rates.

Some make the case that increased U.S. COVID-19 testing means the states are catching cases they might have missed.

But the fact is that the increases are almost in lockstep with the reopening dates in a variety of states.

It’s important to stress that situation is not occurring here right now: the peaks are the result of states that had active cases spreading infection during their reopenings.

We did have that significant downward trend of cases and, in reality, a limited number of cases in the region. We’re doing things right, and doing things safely.

The point is that things could change, and quickly, if new cases appear and are not caught quickly, and if people stop taking basic precautions.

Be safe, be ready, be sharp.