Federal election can wait
Canadians likely to punish any party for bringing one on without compelling reasons
Minority governments can fall quite easily. The media refers to them as “minority governments” but a more accurate description would be a minority parliament.
The federal election in October 2019 returned 157 Liberals, 121 Conservatives, 24 NDP, 32 Bloc Québécois, and three Greens. Voila! A federal minority parliament.
This amalgam of parties is not a government: it‘s a representative assembly. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau formed the government with the confidence of these other parties just over a year ago.
Some Canadians are getting the jitters about experiencing another federal election? But it doesn't have to happen.
Nobody wants an election in the middle of a vibrant pandemic and a national financial crisis. The opposition parties are unprepared and unwilling to spend their money to contest the Liberals at this particular time.
$500 MILLION COST
For Canadians, it would be an election of minor consequence at great cost. Each national election costs taxpayers over $500 million — in this case for a predictable result that will likely produce yet another minority parliament.
It is true that federal minority governments historically have a lifespan of only about 18 months in normal times. The current minority government is now passed that point. And these are not normal times.
Canadians are cranky about the possibility of an election and would likely punish any party for bringing one on without compelling reasons. The Opposition parties know that and so should the prime minister.
Trudeau can maintain the confidence of the House for at least another year. He is leading in the polls with 30 per cent of the popular vote against 28 per cent for the Conservatives. Too close for comfort!
MASSIVE BUDGET BENEFITS
Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland's massive budget benefits all sectors of Canada's economy. Opposition parties will all benefit from it as well. It would be politically naive for the Conservatives or any other party or parties, including the Liberals, to bring down the government over a budget that actually benefits them.
I believe that there is as much popular support for minority government now as there has been for majority government. Trudeau's personality as portrayed in the media may well be a factor. Perhaps the public is asking what would he be like if he had a majority? People are asking that with some concern.
Canada's Parliamentary democracy will benefit if Canadians vote for the party or candidate of their choice without heeding the pleas of party leaders demanding a majority. I would be pleased with another minority government or the continuation of this one. But we don't need to spend $500 million to find out.
MINORITY GOVERNMENTS CAN WORK
Historically, some of our best public policies have come out of minority governments. Think of the Canada Pension Plan, the Guaranteed Annual Income Supplement, the Canada Student Loan Program, and Medicare. These are major contributions to the lives of Canadians from minority governments.
Nobody wants an election in the middle of a vibrant pandemic and an uncertain economy. The opposition parties are not particularly motivated to face a national election and they shouldn't be.
But this is not the time to bring this government down by hook or by crook. Common sense may prevail. It remains to be seen.
James Guy, PhD, is professor emeritus of political science at Cape Breton University, columnist and author.