Israel faces a moment of reckoning in its decades-long clash with Iran

The decisions that Israel's war cabinet takes in the hours and days ahead about what comes next in its now open shooting war with Iran could represent a pivotal moment in the his‐ tory of the conflict in the Middle East.

From Iran's view, its un‐ precedented overnight drone and missile attacks on mili‐ tary targets in Israel repre‐ sent a settling of scores that should not trigger further military escalation.

But for many Israelis, Iran's actions amount to an outright declaration of war.

Should, as the United States and other Western na‐ tions are reportedly urging, Israel accept the so-called "off ramp" Iran claims it has offered, or will Israeli leaders forge ahead with further mili‐ tary escalation against the Is‐ lamic regime, possibly hitting targets in Iran itself?

The early indications are that Israel's government is strongly leaning toward the latter.

"This is something that will have to have a major re‐ sponse," said Likud Party Knesset member Hanoch Milwidsky, a close ally of Prime Minister Benjamin Ne‐ tanyahu.

"You cannot have an at‐ tack like this left untreated," he told the BBC Sunday morning.

Iran gave advance warn‐ ing

While the attack by Iran's mil‐ itary on targets in Israel was certainly a first, it was also not a surprise - nor did it ap‐ pear designed to inflict maxi‐ mal damage.

The country's Islamic regime had given plenty of notice that something signifi‐ cant was about to happen, and Israel had days to prepare its population and to beef up its air defences.

Even after the first drones were launched, Israel had hours to take measures to shoot them down.

Israel's military says 99 per cent of the missiles and drones were intercepted and that the few that did get through inflicted only mini‐ mal damage on a military base in the country's south.

WATCH | Explosions in Israeli skies during Iran's aerial attack:

While Israel and Iran have been waging a shadow war against each other for decades, the trigger for this latest escalation came two weeks ago after a suspected Israeli strike on the Iranian consulate in Damascus, Syria, which killed two senior Iran‐ ian military commanders.

The attack annihilated the building and killed 16 people, including two civilian by‐ standers, according to the Syrian Observatory for Hu‐ man Rights.

Israel has not officially claimed responsibility - nor for any of the other assassi‐ nations or precision strikes it is suspected to have made on targets in Iran over the years - but Israeli leaders have also not denied they were behind it.

Israel weighing next steps

Typically, Iran has taken mili‐ tary action against Israel at arm's length, usually through the various proxy armies it supports in the region, in‐ cluding Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen.

But analysts say Israel's blatant destruction of a sup‐ posedly off-limits diplomatic building fundamentally changed the nature of the conflict between the two ene‐ mies.

"Israel crossed the line by attacking the Iranian con‐ sulate in Damascus," said Ali Vaez, an Iran analyst with the Crisis Group in Washington, D.C.

"Iranians believe unless they retaliate in a meaningful way, they would severely damage their regional deter‐ rence and Israel could target any Iranian official anywhere in the region and might even take the next step by target‐ ing Iran on their own soil," he told the BBC's World Service.

WATCH | Iran's supreme leader vowed retaliaton for April 1 strike:

A statement issued by Iran's Permanent Mission to the UN said the drone attack amounted to "legitimate de‐ fence" and it now considers its immediate conflict with Is‐ rael "resolved."

But in Israel on Sunday morning, Netanyahu's war cabinet was meeting to de‐ termine its next steps, and the indications all point to some kind of further military escalation.

"They see it as an escala‐ tory attack that demands a response," said Julie Norman, an associate professor of po‐ litical science and interna‐ tional relations at University College London.

There are multiple reports that U.S. President Joe Biden has told Netanyahu to back down, and if Israel proceeds with more military action his country will not have U.S. support for a counterattack against Iran.

U.S. fighter aircraft, along with help from British and Jordanian forces, played a significant role defending Is‐ rael from the Saturday night attack, but the U.S. has also told Israel it will not be drawn into a broader Middle East war.

The initial global support Israel enjoyed in the after‐ math of Hamas's Oct. 7 at‐ tacks in the country - in which some 1,200 people were killed and roughly 250 people taken hostage, ac‐ cording to Israeli officials has since turned to wide‐ spread condemnation and accusations that Israel's mili‐ tary has shown a blatant dis‐ regard for civilian casualties in Gaza.

More than 33,000 people have been killed in the terri‐ tory since Israel launched its military offensive, according to the Gaza Health Ministry, and human rights agencies accuse Israel of deliberately trying to starve Palestinians

to death in order to put more pressure on Hamas to sur‐ render.

Attack has 'reoriented the conflict'

For months, Israel had re‐ sisted pressure by the U.S. and other Western countries to reduce the number of civil‐ ian casualties in Gaza, to in‐ crease the amount of hu‐ manitarian aid being deliv‐ ered and to push harder for a ceasefire with Hamas.

But it took Israel's killing of six international aid work‐ ers with the charity World Central Kitchen earlier this month before the Americans finally told Israel that its fu‐ ture support was conditional on Israel taking concrete steps.

WATCH | Deadly strike on aid workers draws criti‐ cism:

Norman, the King's Col‐ lege analyst, says the possi‐ bility of a dramatic escalation with Iran represents a critical moment for the United States and its ability to apply leverage to Israel.

"The U.S. military has to be aware and involved with decision making in a way Is‐ rael felt they did not have to be in Gaza," Norman told CBC News in an interview, noting that the U.S. has hun‐ dreds of its soldiers in harm's way stationed at bases in Iraq and northern Syria.

"There are so many more troops would be likely impli‐ cated by any decision Israel makes to escalate further with Iran."

For Palestinians besieged and hungry in Gaza, the esca‐ lation with Iran also has pro‐ found implications.

"Hamas is eager to see re‐ gional chaos and will wait and hope for the worst," vet‐ eran analyst Aaron David Miller with the Carnegie En‐ dowment for International Peace in Washington, D.C., wrote on social media.

"Gaza has been relegated to the back burner."

Indeed, within hours of the Iranian attack, Hamas is‐ sued a statement saying it had rejected the latest cease‐ fire and hostage deal pro‐ posed by Israel.

Hamas has insisted it wants a permanent ceasefire in the territory before agreeing to return dozens of Israelis captured on Oct. 7. Is‐ rael has refused.

"I imagine our attention will be back to Gaza soon but to some degree this [at‐ tack by Iran] has reoriented the conflict," said Norman.