Ukraine is suddenly close to getting a big new supply of U.S. weapons

The U.S. Congress has taken a long-awaited leap toward rearming Ukraine, setting up votes Saturday that will have sprawling in‐ ternational consequences.

An informal coalition of like-minded lawmakers from both parties in Washington stuck together and busted through a procedural barri‐ cade that had been blocking a vote for months.

It happened after the Re‐ publican Speaker Mike John‐ son took a career-threaten‐ ing gamble: he declared him‐ self willing to risk the wrath of the far right and its threats to oust him.

"History judges us for what we do," Johnson said earlier this week.

"[This is] a critical time on the world stage. I could make a selfish decision and do something that's different. But I am doing here what I believe to be the right thing."

After more than six mon‐ ths of stasis, he gave the House of Representatives a chance to weigh in Friday. When it finally did, the initial result was overwhelming, with three-quarters agreeing to advance the package.

Four bills headed for fi‐ nal vote

Now four bills that arm American allies and sanction U.S. rivals are scheduled for final votes in that chamber on Saturday afternoon.

The bills would supply weapons to Ukraine, Taiwan and Israel, sanction Iran, Hamas and Russia, and po‐ tentially ban the popular so‐ cial media site, TikTok.

"The world has been watching," said Jim McGov‐ ern, a Democrat from Massa‐ chusetts who worked on the legislation.

"Our allies have been waiting, and waiting, and waiting for the GOP to get their act together.… The Ukrainian people have suffer‐ ed as a result," he said. "This Republican delay has helped Putin and hurt Ukraine."

This 316-94 vote suggests the bills have enough sup‐ port to pass the House, then the Senate, and become law. Adoption is not guaranteed, but highly likely.

The package actually re‐ ceived slightly more votes from the minority Democrats than from Republicans, something that rarely hap‐ pens in Congress.

Democrats have made clear they are ready to do something they didn't for the last ousted speaker, Kevin McCarthy: vote to help John‐ son keep his job.

That offer proved critical. The Speaker had flinched at allowing a vote amid threats from his own side. Some pro-Trump lawmakers like Marjorie Taylor Greene are vitriolic in their opposi‐ tion to aiding Ukraine, and have threatened to dump Johnson.

She has called Johnson a mini-tyrant. Others on the right have more articulately cited their concerns about the legislation.

"How long are we putting America last?" said one Re‐ publican opponent, Ralph Norman, who was unsuc‐ cessful at blocking the bills at committee. "It's something I can't live with."

What's in the bills: Ukraine, Israel, Taiwan, TikTok

The House will now vote Sat‐ urday on four separate bills worth $95 billion US.

Nearly two-thirds of that money - over $60 billion - will go to resupplying Ukraine through 2024. It also pushes the president to hand Ukraine U.S.-made longrange Army Tactical Missile System, known as ATACMS, and includes other economic assistance.

A number of Democrats opposed the vote over its Is‐ rael component: it includes a mix of defensive weapons, like replenishing Israel's mis‐ sile-shield systems, and of‐ fensive weapons including artillery.

In an effort to address criticism on the left, there are billions earmarked for hu‐ manitarian relief, including for Gaza. Some Republicans tried and failed to strip that from the package.

There's $8 billion for U.S. allies in Asia, especially Tai‐ wan, mostly for weapons and naval infrastructure.

Then finally there's an om‐ nibus bill, called the Peace Through Strength Act, which allows the U.S. to seize Russ‐ ian government-held assets in the U.S., sell them, and send the profits to Ukraine.

It also reintroduces a crackdown on TikTok that had already passed the House. The bill has been re‐ laxed slightly to give the ap‐ p's Chinese owner several ex‐ tra months to sell it before the app would be blocked in the U.S.

WATCH | Ukraine steps up efforts to recruit sol‐ diers:

The argument against the bills

One Republican opponent of these bills warned that seiz‐ ing Russian-held assets could rebound against the U.S.

The U.S. is saddled with historic levels of debt and needs countries to buy as‐ sets, like bonds and treasury bills, to avoid skyrocketing in‐ terest rates, said Thomas Massie.

Massie expressed fear that less-friendly countries will start balking at purchas‐ ing U.S. assets.

That points to another ar‐ gument against these bills: that unlike when the U.S. was the world's uncontested su‐ perpower, it is no longer in a position to give allies this many weapons.

The U.S. has neither the money, nor the military means, critics say, to handle so many security threats un‐ folding simultaneously in dif‐ ferent places, from Asia to Eastern Europe.

This month, the cost of servicing the U.S. national de‐ bt exceeded the country's military spending. And mili‐ tary production is creaky to boot.

Plagued by chronic delays, the U.S. ship-building indus‐ try is capable of producing one ship for every 230 built in China. As for artillery, Rus‐ sia is producing three times more shells than the U.S. and Europe combined; the U.S. makes only 10 per cent of the 350,000 shells per month that Ukraine has called its bare minimum need.

A Trump-aligned Republi‐ can senator wrote a piece in the New York Times arguing that the U.S. should be prod‐ ding Ukraine to scale back its ambitions: to dig defensive ditches, lay down land mines, and negotiate the best cease‐ fire it can with Russia.

"Ukraine's challenge is not the [Republican Party]; it's math," wrote Ohio Sen. J.D. Vance. "Fundamentally, we lack the capacity to manufac‐ ture the amount of weapons Ukraine needs us to supply to win the war."

One analyst offered two arguments for the bills: To help Ukraine achieve an equi‐ table peace settlement, and to reassure other democratic allies who fear Russia, China and North Korea.

Without new U.S. sup‐ plies, Ukraine's defences are at risk of collapse, making it harder to negotiate fair ter‐ ms, said Mark Cancian, a re‐ tired marine and defence de‐ partment official.

Such a disaster would re‐ verberate elsewhere, he said.

"The stakes are very high," Cancian, an expert on mili‐ tary budgeting at the Wash‐ ington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies, told CBC News.

"A Ukrainian collapse would just be bad. Not just for Ukraine … but the signal that it sends to other [U.S. al‐ lies] like Taiwan … [and] South Korea or Japan.

"If the message they re‐ ceive is, 'the United States will get tired of defending you,' that's when they might decide to get nuclear weapons."