VOTER TUNE OUT?
Albertans rarely flock to the polls
No matter how the vote turns out May 5, voter turnout is likely to be a serious matter.
Some pundits are forecasting record low numbers and more gloom and doom for the democratic process in Alberta, where turnout dipped to a countrywide low of 40.6 per cent in 2008.
“I’m looking in the 30s,” said Calgary-based political science professor Duane Bratt, whose estimate reflects 38 per cent turnout for four byelections in October 2014, as well as a sense of resignation that accompanies the Progressive Conservatives’ four-decade dynasty.
Indeed, conventional wisdom suggests contented or disengaged electors stay at home, while angry, fearful or inspired voters head to the polls. Bratt said fear of a Wildrose government trumped anger in Alberta in 2012, when the downward trend was broken and 54.4 per cent of eligible voters returned a PC majority.
There is now reason to believe that at least Edmonton’s numbers will be respectable, given that palpable NDP momentum in city ridings could motivate supporters of all sorts to mark a ballot.
“With the amount of excitement around this campaign and people’s appetite for change, we’re expecting it might improve a little bit,” said Brian Stokes, NDP deputy campaign manager. “We’re always a bit concerned about it, but we also have a good machine to make sure we get our vote out.”
So-called big data helps fuel that machine. He said the party has deployed a provincewide voter contact database for at least a decade to help identify support by demographics and region.
“When you start drilling down we can get to the point now where you’re identifying (potential voters) almost on a postal-code basis. You can really get a good idea where your support should be and where it might not be.”
Courtney Murphy, a 22-year-old psychology student at MacEwan University, supports the NDP stance on health care and education. She was 18 in 2012 but chose not to cast her first ballot.
“It seemed most people were voting PC or Wildrose anyway, so my vote wasn’t going to count. Now, it’s much closer and I’ll definitely be voting NDP. I definitely think the momentum makes a difference. It makes you feel they have a chance and your vote matters.”
While political parties have a self-interest and obligation to motivate the electorate at their own expense, Elections Alberta has spent $1 million in public money to get out the vote this year. Six amusing TV ads on the theme of Decide for Yourself have aired this month. Bratt fears the ads’ target audience — 20-somethings who don’t watch supper hour news or playoff hockey — won’t be reached.
“That’s a million dollars that they’re going to piss away on TV ads. If there’s a way they could put it on Netflix, maybe.”
By Friday morning, the ads had also been viewed 4,700 times on YouTube, but weren’t posted on the organization’s Facebook page.
Though it’s difficult to judge the success of such ads, Jon Pammett, a retired Carleton University professor who wrote extensively on voter turnout, supports the Elections Alberta angle.
“That’s promising. What doesn’t work is telling people to vote because they should.”
He said it’s crucial that people vote the first time they are eligible, since it’s more likely they will develop the habit. He envisions a stabilization of turnout numbers, but not a resurgence.
Nor does Bratt. He has never supported mandatory voter legislation, which Australia enacted in 1924, but is now waffling.
Aussies turn out at a rate of about 90 per cent and largely support the law.
“I used to be of the view that it’s a right to vote, not an obligation to vote, so there’s just as much a right not to vote.”
But he said percentages are too low and parties have stopped campaigning across demographics in favour of targeting only likely voters, disenfranchising entire cohorts of the young and the poor.