Average players often steal October spotlight
KANSAS CITY The World Series is an utterly different animal than any of our other major professional championships.
The Super Bowl, NBA Finals and Stanley Cup Final are all dignified, sensible ways to decide which team should be anointed the best of that season. Oh, an odd bounce of an oblong ball may impact an NFL title or a deflected puck decide an NHL title. But, basically, these events are all noble creatures.
The NBA’s relentless seven-game test is perhaps the most thorough examination and the least impacted by luck. At least 24 of the 30 players who have won NBA Finals MVPs will end up in the Hall of Fame. To future generations, the only mystery man in the group may be Andre Iguodala this past season.
In contrast, the World Series is a goofy, funny and adorable creature, perhaps a penguin — waddling in its tuxedo one second then sliding on its stomach the next. You love it. But you wonder whether evolution’s mind sometimes wandered.
Now it’s time once more for an event that combines enormous ever-winding tension, thundering crowds, delicate strategy and, at centre stage deciding the whole affair, some magnificent Hall of Famer such as Bob Gibson or Sandy Koufax. Or, just as likely, some plucky, lucky World Series MVP penguin such as Rick Dempsey or Ray Knight.
Predictions about the World Series that began Tuesday night in Kansas City would be of enormous interest to me, on one condition: If anyone anywhere had foretold that, in nine playoff games, the Mets’ Daniel Murphy would have seven singles, two doubles, a key stolen base, a keen slide into home plate and at least four brilliant defensive plays — oh, and seven home runs. This from a player who has averaged 10 home runs a season the past six years.
Murphy is exactly as unexpected as these fine supporting-cast gentlemen who own a World Series MVP trophy: Don Larsen, Bucky Dent, Gene Tenace, Steve Yeager, Darrell Porter, Pat Borders, John Wetteland and Livan Hernandez at age 22. In the past decade, we’ve added Jermaine Dye, David Eckstein, Mike Lowell, Edgar Renteria and David Freese — all Murphys.
For every Hall of Famer who dominates the Series, there’s also a Donn Clendenon. In fact, there have been exactly two dozen of each type since the award began in 1955.
The other winners? Often allstar level, but not Coopers-town-level pitchers who own October, such as Jack Morris, Dave Stewart, Orel Hershiser or Bret Saberhagen.
We don’t know yet whether Madison Bumgarner, who had a pleasant 3.79 ERA in his first six playoff series, then suddenly owned last year’s post-season as no pitcher ever had, will be a Cooperstown type or a Morris. But watch out for that one super-hot pitcher. Or someone you barely know at all.
After all this, you want a prediction, no matter how I hedge that it’s almost impossible to predict the World Series? Fine. K.C. will win, although it’ll be tough and close and end back in Missouri.
The consensus wisdom is that K.C.’s high-average contact hitters do well against power pitchers like those of the Mets. The Royals hit .284 this year on pitches that were 95 m.p.h. or faster.
While this is true, it misses the point: The Royals cope particularly well with right-handed power pitchers, such as Matt Harvey, Noah Syndergaard and Jacob deGrom of the Mets. Why? Five of the Royals’ best hitters bat lefthanded or are switch hitters — so, sweet matchups. They were 64-40 against righty starters this season.
Southpaws can be a different story. How did Kansas City fare against Bumgarner last October? (Answer: Bumgarner’s 0.43 ERA.) What don’t the Mets have, even in the bullpen? A proven, experienced power southpaw.