THE BREAKDOWN
Gridiron gurus have declared this a clash of the quarterbacking titans, the almighty Tom Brady versus the red-hot gunslinger Matt Ryan. Scott Mitchell looks past the pivot to see how these teams stack up:
QUARTERBACKS
If you went back and looked at all 50 Super Bowl matchups before this one, you’d be hard-pressed to find two quarterbacks playing at a higher level. Matt Ryan was in MVP form for the Falcons all season long — that’s why he’s the favourite for the award — while Tom Brady has also been elite since returning from his well-publicized four-game suspension at the age of 39. This could be a QB duel for the ages on Sunday in Houston.
RUNNING BACKS
Shared backfields are the norm in the NFL these days, but finding the right personnel isn’t as easy as it seems. The Falcons’ duo of Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman is as explosive as it gets and both of them are dangerous when given space. The Patriots, meanwhile, have their own version of that in the combo of Dion Lewis and James White, but they also have an early-down hammer in the form of 250-pound LeGarrette Blount.
OFFENSIVE LINE
The Falcons made one of the best off-season moves of last year’s free-agent bonanza, stealing Pro Bowl centre Alex Mack from the Cleveland Browns to solidify the middle of the line. Couple that with LT Jake Matthews’ improved play and the fact all five starters played every game and you can see why the offence was so good. After getting wrecked by Von Miller and Co. in the AFC title game last year, the Patriots brought back revered 68-year-old line coach Dante Scarnecchia, a move that paid off as much as Mack’s signing.
RECEIVERS
Julio Jones will be the most physically dominant player on the field, and the six-foot-three 220-pounder will be the focus for Patriots defensive co-ordinator Matt Patricia. But don’t forget about versatile receivers Mohamed Sanu and Taylor Gabriel or underrated rookie tight end Austin Hooper. Rob Gronkowski is done for the season, but the Falcons will need to bottle up shifty playmaker Julian Edelman in the open field and be wary of the Patriots’ ability to deploy Martellus Bennett, Chris Hogan and Danny Amendola to exploit any weaknesses that emerge.
DEFENSIVE LINE
You wouldn’t call either of these front fours menacing, but the Patriots do one thing very, very well: Stop the run. The Pats allowed just 88.6 yards per game on the ground this season, good for third in the league, while the Falcons weren’t nearly as stout, finishing as the 17th-ranked unit against the run, allowing 104.5 yards per game. Neither unit puts a whole lot of pressure on the QB from the defensive line — Dwight Freeney is just a situational pass-rusher at the advanced age of 36 — but Patriots edge-rushers Chris Long and Trey Flowers combined for 11 sacks.
LINEBACKERS
The Falcons boast the best player in second-year edge-rusher Vic Beasley and his breakout season of 15.5 sacks, but the Patriots have a well-rounded veteran group led by Rob Ninkovich and Dont’a Hightower. Alongside Beasley, whose only job is to get after Brady, the Falcons will start a pair of rookies in second-rounder Deion Jones at middle linebacker and weakside ’backer De’Vondre Campbell, a fourth-round pick. They’ve played well lately, but this could be a soft spot New England capitalizes on.
DEFENSIVE BACKS
Bill Belichick has long been known as a masterful evaluator of secondary talent and schemes, which makes this a key unit when both teams have the ball. Free safety Devin McCourty and Super Bowl XLIX hero Malcolm Butler make the Patriots’ secondary one of the league’s best, but they’ll be tested in a big way by Ryan and Jones. The Falcons, meanwhile, are young but talented on the back end — they gave up the fifth-most passing yards in the league this season — with free safety Keanu Neal, a 2016 first-round pick, providing the big plays.
SPECIAL TEAMS
Proficiency in the kicking game has helped the Patriots win close ones in the playoffs before, but Stephen Gostkowski (84.4 per cent) and Matt Bryant (91.9 per cent) are two of the best in the NFL, so that’s a wash. Eric Weems is the most dangerous player on either side in the return game, helping Atlanta average 11.4 yards per punt return this season, fifth-best in the NFL. The Patriots employ Cyrus Jones and Amendola, but neither is a difference-maker. Weems’ advantage is offset by New England’s terrific cover teams.
COACHING
The only way you’re getting an argument here is if Vince Lombardi suddenly shows up on the Falcons’ sideline. But even though Belichick is considered one of the greatest head coaches of all time, Dan Quinn is no slouch and he’s already built two Super Bowl-calibre defences with the Seattle Seahawks in 2013 and 2014, winning one and losing the other at the goal-line against these same Patriots. You also have co-ordinators on both sides of the ball who are considered NFL head coaching material.
INTANGIBLES
There’s no doubt the Patriots have experience on their side, as Brady has played in more Super Bowls than the entire Falcons roster, which either means everything or nothing, depending on how much you believe in intangibles. We all know the Patriots have a little bit of Roger Goodell-induced Deflategate motivation on their side as well.
FINAL PICK
The team wearing white has won 11 of the last 12 Super Bowls, giving the Patriots the edge over the Falcons, who’ll be wearing red, long before the opening kickoff. In all seriousness, these are two evenly matched teams with prolific offences that should have no trouble putting up points, but Belichick’s boys come in with a better defence and the guarantee they won’t be overwhelmed by the big stage.