Albertans: A people of contradictory opinions
Many accept say change is man-made and real, but they’re reluctant to bite the bullet
It’s a public opinion poll that has something for everyone.
Let’s say you don’t like the new Alberta carbon tax. Well, your misery has company — 64 per cent of Albertans oppose the levy.
You think the Alberta government is on the right track by phasing out coal-fired power plants? Well, 58 per cent of Albertans support your position.
You don’t want the government to put a 100-megatonne cap on annual greenhouse-gas emissions from the oilsands? You’re not alone. A majority — 54 per cent — agree with you.
You believe climate scientists when they warn us that humans are the main cause of global warming? Take heart — 52 per cent of Albertans say the same thing.
This mixed bag of results comes from a new Mainstreet Research public opinion poll conducted via automated phone calls for Postmedia Feb. 9 and 10 (with a margin of error of 1.9 percentage points, 19 times out of 20).
It is an interesting poll, to say the least, filled with apparent contradictions.
On the one hand, the results will gladden the hearts of the conservative opposition parties when they see 64 per cent of Albertans oppose the carbon tax (and only 34 per cent support it). Their tax-hating hearts will swell a little more when learning that 51 per cent of respondents say the tax has had a “major” impact on their lives while 42 per cent say the impact has been “minor.”
But on the other hand, what are the opposition parties to make of the findings that a clear majority (58 per cent versus 33 per cent) support shutting down coal-fired plants by 2030?
Likewise, the government can find some solace in the fact that a majority of Albertans accept the science of climate change (52 per cent versus 39 per cent who think it’s a natural cycle). It’s a slim majority, but at least it’s not the other way around.
However, when it comes to putting a cap on emissions from the oilsands to help fight climate change, only 31 per cent approve while 54 per cent disapprove.
If nothing else, the poll indicates just how complex and contradictory the issue of climate change is in a province that’s a major producer of fossil fuels.
The poll seems to indicate many Albertans realize manmade climate change is a problem, but they’re conflicted about what to do.
“A majority of them say that greenhouse gases and climate change are caused by humans,” explains David Valentin, a vice-president with Mainstreet Research. “But at the same time, they don’t want to take these particular steps that they may perceive to be harmful to themselves, to be harmful to Alberta’s economy, to be harmful to their friends and family who work in the oilsands.”
Albertans weren’t asked what they think of the government’s argument that implementing a carbon tax has helped convince the federal government to give conditional approval to the expansion of the Trans Mountain pipeline to the West Coast.
That’s an important link. Last year, an Abacus poll found that 65 per cent of Albertans opposed the carbon tax. But when asked what they thought of a tax that was accompanied by a new pipeline, 92 per cent suddenly supported the tax.
Albertans might not like the idea of a price on carbon, but they’ll support it if there’s a reward at the end of the day.
It’s the old carrot-and-stick approach.
That’s why the government will be tossing out more carrots next week when it announces details of how money collected from the carbon tax will help Albertans buy solar panels. There’ll be more details of the program to provide every Alberta home with high-efficiency light bulbs. And the government will keep reminding everyone that 60 per cent of Albertans will be receiving a full rebate.
Even if you’re tired of being hit with the “stick” of a carbon tax, the government will be forcefeeding you a diet of good-news carrots over the next two years to convince you that even if you think the tax is bad news now, you’ll have changed your opinion by the time the 2019 provincial election rolls around.