Balzac Billy was right — forecasters say western Alberta in for chilly spring

CALGARY Don’t like a chilly spring? Maybe it’s time to find a temporary pad in Drumheller.

The Weather Network on Tuesday released its spring forecast, calling for an unexpected return of El Nino bringing balmy temperatures throughout Canada.

Unless, that is, you happen to live in Calgary, Edmonton and nearly everything west of Alberta’s two largest cities, including the entirety of B.C.

Weather Network meteorologist Brad Russeau said forecasters are in uncharted territory, with last year’s massive El Nino pattern giving way to a comparatively weak La Nina, which caused cooler than normal waters in the Pacific Ocean that left a mark this winter. But now another El Nino is developing to usher in the spring, something weather watchers haven’t seen before.

“This has made the spring forecast a bit tougher. We’ve never really gone from a strong El Nino to a barely visible La Nina and into another El Nino,” Russeau said.

“The (western part) of Alberta and B.C. have been most susceptible to cold spells (this winter) and that trend will probably continue.”

The spring forecast calls for temperatures in most of the western part of the province — essentially the greater Calgary area and everything to the west — to be below seasonal averages, while precipitation is expected to be above normal for all of southern Alberta.

It should be no surprise after noted local groundhog impersonator Balzac Billy in early February spotted his man-sized shadow, signalling six more weeks of winter.

Through March, April and May, average daily highs rise from about 4 C to 16 C, but Russeau said those in the cold zone can expect those to be lower than usual. Meanwhile, average snowfall for those three months is about 53 cm along with 60 mm of rain, and it’s expected those numbers will be higher as well. But, Russeau noted, because it’s Alberta, nothing ’s ever easy for weather prognosticators.

“Alberta is notorious for huge temperature swings, so we’ll have to see,” he said. Russeau said forecasters are also taking an early look at the summer forecast, but the unexpected appearance of a second El Nino in two years creates a bit of a wild card.