EDMONTON STILL LOVES THE NDP, BUT NOBODY ELSE DOES

I’ve never thought of Edmonton as a home of contrarians. And yet here we are.

According to a new Mainstreet/Postmedia opinion poll, Edmontonians are out of step with the rest of the province when it comes to passing judgment on the NDP government.

Or, put another way, a majority of Albertans think the provincial government is doing a rotten job handling the economy. Everywhere but in Edmonton, that is.

In the capital city, the honeymoon continues.

Here’s how the numbers crunch (in a random poll of 2,374 people conducted March 10, with a margin of error of two percentage points, 19 times out of 20).

In the province as a whole, 58 per cent said the government is doing a “poor” or “very poor” job.

Breaking it down by region: in Calgary, 52 per cent aren’t happy, while that number jumps to 66 per cent for areas outside the major cities.

But Edmonton is an island of contentment, relatively speaking.

When you add up the Edmontonians who think the NDP is doing an “excellent” or “good” or “fair” job, you reach a majority at 52 per cent.

It’s the same with the government’s snail-paced march to balance the budget by 2024.

In the province as a whole, 52 per cent say that’s too slow.

In Calgary, 50 per cent feel the same way, while almost 60 per cent are grumbling in the rest of Alberta.

In Edmonton, though, 40 per cent say the pace is just right, while 12 per cent say it’s too fast.

That gives you a combined total of 52 per cent of Edmontonians who disagree with the rest of the province.

The numbers shouldn’t really come as a surprise, given how Edmonton still seems to support the NDP — and how voters are never in a good mood during a recession.

A Mainstreet poll in February, for example, indicated that even though 57 per cent of Albertans disapproved of Premier Rachel Notley’s performance, in Edmonton a majority — 51 per cent — thought she was doing OK.

Put in simple terms, what we’ve seen in recent polls is Alberta fragmenting into partisan camps, with the NDP ahead in Edmonton, the Progressive Conservatives doing well in Calgary and the Wildrose leading in the rest of Alberta.

But that picture might be about to change depending on what happens with the unite-the-right movement that will kick off with a bang this Saturday if Jason Kenney wins the PC leadership race.

If all the dominoes fall his way, he’ll merge the PCs with the Wildrose into a new conservative party that will romp to victory in the next election by taking Calgary and the rest of the Alberta, leaving the NDP isolated in Edmonton.

That’s putting things in very simplistic terms, of course. The next election is still two years away and a lot can happen between now and then.

But the news isn’t good for the NDP these days, politically or economically, as it gets ready to introduce its budget Thursday.

Speaking of which, one of the poll questions asked what should be the priority in the upcoming budget.

The No. 1 priority was “reduce taxes,” with 35 per cent choosing that option. In second place was “reducing spending to lower the deficit” at 24 per cent. Third was “maintain services, such as health and education” at 18 per cent. (Again, Edmonton was out of step by putting health and education in second spot).

It’s a contradictory bag of responses.

Albertans want the government to cut taxes and lower the deficit while continuing to invest money in health and education.

I suppose doing a variation of two of the three is possible: cut taxes but increase the deficit to invest in hospitals; or lower the deficit but increase taxes to spend on education; or cut taxes and lower the deficit but don’t invest in health or education.

However, doing all three is impossible. Unless the price of oil was to suddenly bounce back up.

That, of course, would change everything.

Based on Alberta’s history, if the price of energy was to recover and money began pouring into the provincial treasury, Albertans would suddenly be less critical of the government — and Edmonton would no longer be filled with contrarians.

The No. 1 priority was ‘reduce taxes,’ with 35 per cent choosing that option. In second place was ‘reducing spending to lower the deficit.’