YOU NEED A REASON TO PICK THE LEAFS? HOW ABOUT FIVE?
Youthful exuberance, coaching could work in Toronto’s favour during the post-season
I don’t know about you, but I love a good upset.
Give me the underdog over the favourite any day of the week. It doesn’t matter the team or even the sport — there is something thrilling about watching Goliath get toppled by a tiny nobody everyone had written off.
Which brings us to the eighthseeded Toronto Maple Leafs and their first-round playoff series against the Presidents’ Trophywinning Washington Capitals. Not one of 18 hockey writers for Postmedia News predicted the Leafs would advance past the Capitals. In fact, only four believe the Leafs will win more than one game.
That doesn’t mean we know what we’re talking about. Upsets — particularly, first-round upsets — happen all the time in hockey. Goalies can get hot, power plays can go cold and fourth-line players can suddenly discover a scoring touch that had been dormant since they entered the league.
Here are five reasons why the Leafs will advance past the Capitals (and three reasons why Goliath will be too darn strong for David to handle):
1It’s the Capitals
I’m sorry, Washington, but your hockey team is full of choking dogs. At least that’s the perception. In six of the previous nine seasons, the Capitals have finished first in their division — winning the Presidents’ Trophy twice — and yet the team has not once advanced past the second round in that time. While fingers have pointed at Alex Ovechkin, he’s scored 41 goals and 82 points in 84 playoff games. But the supporting cast hasn’t always been supportive.
2The kids keep surprising
We keep waiting for Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner and Toronto’s other rookies to hit the proverbial wall that slows most first-year players. Instead, the kids keep getting better. Matthews and William Nylander each had 30 points in their final 34 games, while Connor Brown and Nikita Zaitsev had 15 points over the same span.
3Andersen is not Holtby
In a tale of the tape, no one would pick Frederik Andersen over Braden Holtby. But while Holtby has won a Vezina Trophy and ranked among the top three goalies this season, he still hasn’t advanced past the second round of the playoffs. Andersen has. In 2014-15, the same year he shared the Williams M. Jennings Trophy for the league’s lowest goals-against average, he had the Anaheim Ducks within one win of the Stanley Cup final.
4Babcock pushes right buttons Whether Mike Babcock wins the Jack Adams Trophy or not, the head coach’s influence on the Leafs has been Svengali-like. He took a team that finished dead last in 2016 and guided them into an unlikely playoff spot. Tanking and drafting Matthews obviously helped, but how many first overall picks stepped into the league and made the playoffs as a rookie? Not many. Babcock is a big reason for that. He’s made a two-way player out of Nazem Kadri, a top-four defenceman out of Jake Gardiner, and is getting contributions up and down the lineup.
5Offensive depth
The Capitals, who scored the third-most goals in the NHL this season, have a forward corps that includes Ovechkin, Nicklas Backstrom, Evgeny Kuznetsov and T.J. Oshie. But the Leafs are no slouches when it comes to filling the net. Toronto, which was fifth in goals and had the second-best power play, had three players (Matthews, Kadri and James van Riemsdyk) score 29 goals or more this season. What was particularly impressive was that they played on different lines. And while Washington’s top two scorers (Backstrom and Ovechkin) had more points than Toronto’s top two, the Leafs’ next four scorers finished with more points than the Caps’ next four.
And now, three reasons why the Capitals will be too much for the Leafs to handle:
1A shaky defence
The Capitals’ top line of Backstrom (86 points), Ovechkin (33 goals) and T.J. Oshie (33 goals) combined for 89 goals and 211 points. And they will be going up against a defence that is missing Nikita Zaitsev for at least Game 1 and where Morgan Rielly was a minus-20.
2Mounting injuries
Whether it’s Zaitsev, Tyler Bozak, Roman Polak or Andersen, most of Toronto’s players enter the playoffs banged up, bruised or barely walking. After a game or two against the hard-hitting Capitals, there might not be enough ice packs to pass around.
3The Leafs aren’t good enough The Capitals finished first in the league for a reason: The team is really good. From their goaltending to their defence to their forwards, Washington does not have a weak spot. And while their playoff record is spotty, at least the players have post-season experience.