Easy does it there, young Oilers
Ten big questions that await Edmonton heading into rare off-season of optimism
After reaching Game 7 of the second round against the Anaheim Ducks, the Edmonton Oilers set the bar high for next season — but not too high.
There are a few steps left and they’re not baby steps.
Getting to the Stanley Cup final and winning it all should be incremental. A team doesn’t go from having their noses pressed up against the playoff glass for 10 straight springs to the final round all in one year.
So expectations for the Oilers for 2017-18 should be high after they notched 103 points in the regular season and played 13 playoff games, but it’s not Cup or bust. General manager Peter Chiarelli and head coach Todd McLellan still have work to do.
Here are 10 questions for the Oilers and their fans to ponder between now and training camp in mid-September.
1. How much will Connor McDavid’s eight-year contract be worth when it kicks in on July 1, 2018?
The Oilers can start negotiating after this July 1. The superstar can ask for the moon, but the salary cap hit can’t be more than 20 per cent of the entire team payroll.
We’ve already written that eight years and US$97 million would be a nice idea, a tie-in to his number. That would be a cap hit of US$12.125 million a year and within the 20 per cent range.
But maybe McDavid takes (we use that term facetiously) US$11 million as a cap hit because he realizes if he takes less, that affords the Oilers more for a supporting cast if the cap ceiling is in the US$73million range.
The top five NHL cap hits in 2016-17 were Jonathan Toews and Patrick Kane each at US$10.5 million, Anze Kopitar at US$10 million, Alex Ovechkin at US$9.538 million and Evgeni Malkin at US$9.5 million. The acknowledged best player in the game, Sidney Crosby, is at US$8.7 million.
2. How will Leon Draisaitl fit, then, starting next season because his entry level contract is up?
The Oilers will slot him under McDavid, but how much under in a deal over eight years? Who’s the comparable? Is it Los Angeles Kings captain Kopitar because they play the same style, both big bodies? Is it Jamie Benn, the Dallas Stars captain who starts a contract worth US$9.25 million per season this coming campaign? Or should he be in St. Louis Blues sniper Vladimir Tarasenko’s range at US$7.5 million or in Calgary Flames star Johnny Gaudreau’s at US$6.75 million? Draisaitl was eighth in NHL scoring this past season and has 128 points the past two years. Maybe he signs for $60 million over eight years.
3. Should Draisaitl play centre or right wing?
If McLellan sees him as the No. 2 centre to McDavid with Ryan Nugent-Hopkins in the No. 3 slot, then the Oilers have to go out and get another winger, ideally one who can also play centre and definitely can win at least 50 per cent of his faceoffs. If Draisaitl plays on McDavid’s wing, then Nugent-Hopkins is the No. 2 centre and they’ll need a pure centre for the third spot, somebody like free-agent Nick Bonino, 29, who makes $1.9 million in Pittsburgh, but would be ideal at $3.5 million as the No. 3 guy.
4. What do they do with Jordan Eberle?
The Oilers are talking up rightwinger Eberle after his playoff struggles, offering up his plusses, which he certainly has, like 20 or more goals scored in five of his seven seasons. His defensive game improved greatly this season, but how much stock do they privately take in him not scoring a goal in their 13 playoff games? Can they write it off as first playoff jitters for the just-turned-27-year-old? Or do they see flaws there and try to move him, maybe at the draft June 23 and 24 for help elsewhere? For somebody cheaper than his $6 million for two more years? For a third-line centre like, say, Cody Eakin in Dallas, who makes US$3.825 million and plays with an edge?
5. How do the Oilers improve on faceoffs?
Chiarelli knew he had a team that was 30th on faceoffs at the trade deadline and didn’t get a bona fide faceoff man like, say, Brian Boyle, maybe because he didn’t have a second-round draft choice to give the Tampa Bay Lightning in exchange. He acquired David Desharnais, who scored the OT winner in Game 5 against the San Jose Sharks, but he started as the No. 3 centre and wound up on the fourth line on the wing. If Chiarelli could do things over, he’d likely have gone harder for a centre who wins lots of draws. He needed a 52-54 per cent faceoff guy against Anaheim’s big three of Ryan Getzlaf, Ryan Kesler and Antoine Vermette. He still needs one for his top nine, even as he says Nugent-Hopkins is getting stronger and can improve on faceoffs from his 43 per cent career average.
6. What will happen to Benoit Pouliot?
At the expansion draft June 21, can the Oilers convince the Vegas Golden Knights to take Benoit Pouliot’s $4-million salary for the next two years if they sweeten it with a good prospect in their system? Pouliot was one of the best Oilers in Game 7 against Anaheim, but there is no offence there. He can skate and check, but he had just 14 points in 2016-17. They could buy him out, but that would be dead money on the cap for four years or US$1.3 million a year.
7. Could they expose Mark Letestu in the expansion draft?
It seems unfathomable we’re even talking about the Oilers maybe losing Letestu in the expansion draft because they might want to protect somebody younger, like Jujhar Khaira. Letestu scored 11 power-play goals and had 35 points in the regular season and 11 more points in the 13 playoff games. He’s a bargain at US$1.8 million per season. But he’s 32. Khaira is 22 and there’s not a lot of strong forward prospects in their system. If McLellan has any say, the Oilers protect Letestu. He loves what he brings to the table.
8. How should the Oilers handle losing Andrej Sekera to long-term injury?
Sekera, who tore the anterior cruciate ligament in his left knee in Game 5 against the Ducks earlier this month, will be lost to the Oilers until around Christmas. He doesn’t get the love that Oscar Klefbom, Adam Larsson or Kris Russell gets, but he’s quietly effective. He can play the right side or the left. He scored 35 points last season and he plays 21½ minutes a night. They can move Matt Benning into the No. 4 spot alongside Russell, if they can sign him, but Benning played 16 minutes a game last season. Can he play more than 20 per game if Sekera’s out? That’s a big gulp for a young blue-liner who’s played 62 NHL games.
9 Do they listen to trade offers for Nugent-Hopkins?
Faceoffs and his US$6-million cap hit (tied for 54th in the league) for four more years aside, the big worry is his offence. We saw how well he played in the World Cup of Hockey last fall on the North American team, but he’s mystifyingly become a checker in the NHL, which is fine if you win lots of draws. He had 34 points in 55 games in 2015-16 and 43 in 82 games this season after two 56-point years before that. He’s only 24 and has played 477 NHL games already. He should be a 55- to 60-point NHLer with his skill set. He has to get inside more to score.
10. How much term and money do the Oilers offer to Russell?
With Sekera’s injury, they absolutely need to re-sign him, but other teams saw how good he was in the playoffs and regular season. Could the Oilers get it done for three years and US$3.75 million per season with a no-trade clause? They won’t pay more than the US$4.2 million Klefbom and Larsson each make. But he’s hugely popular in the dressing room and there were many high-fives on the bench after his shot blocks. The Oilers organization is deep in young defencemen, but none are ready to push even Darnell Nurse or Benning for a spot on the NHL roster.