‘Window to win’ for Oilers is wide open
Little correlation between contracts of core players and teams’ success
Every year, there seems to be a new catchphrase that circulates around the hockey world, and often, many of them become overused.
Some I loath include 200-foot player, puck luck and compete level (mainly because it’s often grammatically incorrect when used).
People criticize players for using cliches, yet the aforementioned words and phrases are said or written just as regularly by fans, media and bloggers. Hockey cliches are like a powerful virus that infects many, and a new strain has popped up in Edmonton recently: Window to win.
The basis of this preposterous saying suggests a team has only a certain time frame to claim a championship. Some go as far as suggesting you need to win when one of your star players is on their entry-level contract, because their production-perdollar ratio is excellent. It is a good theory, but it hasn’t been a factor recently.
The previous six Stanley Cup winners had no such player. The last team to hoist the Cup with major producers on their entry-level deals was the Chicago Blackhawks in 2010, when Patrick Kane and Jonathan Toews were in the final year of theirs.
The 2011 Bruins had Brad Marchand and Tyler Seguin on entry-level contracts. Seguin wasn’t a key contributor and Marchand played great, but he was a third-round pick in his second pro season and wasn’t looked at or considered a core piece at the start of season like Patrice Bergeron, David Krejci, Zdeno Chara or Tim Thomas.
The 2012 Los Angeles Kings had Drew Doughty, Anze Kopitar, Mike Richards and Jeff Carter as US$6-million players. Jonathan Quick was 27 years old but on a reasonable contract, worth US$1.8 million per season. They employed solid veterans such as Dustin Brown and Jarret Stoll.
The 2013 Blackhawks’ core included Kane, Toews, Marian Hossa, Patrick Sharp, Duncan Keith, Brent Seabrook, Niklas Hjalmarsson, Johnny Oduya and Corey Crawford. None was on his entry-level contract.
The 2014 Kings had the same five players as in 2012, except Quick was now on a US$5.8million contract. Slava Voynov was now a top defender on a US$4.167-million deal. Tyler Toffoli and Jake Muzzin were on entry-level contracts and were excellent complimentary players.
The 2015 Hawks had the same core of nine.
Last year’s Penguins had Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, Phil Kessel, Kris Letang and MarcAndre Fleury combine for US$38 million of their US$71.4-million salary cap. So 53 per cent of their cap came from five players, and Fleury played in just two games because he was injured and rookie Matt Murray played great and didn’t relinquish the net.
Crosby, Malkin, Fleury and Letang won a Cup with Pittsburgh in 2009, but had made it to the third round only once since, swept four straight by Boston in 2013, before winning the Cup again in 2016. The Penguins lost in the first round three times between Cup victories.
Of course, an NHL team would love to have its star players on cheaper contracts when the team is good. It gives you more cap flexibility, but a team’s opportunity to win isn’t based solely on money. The money becomes an issue when players can’t produce to the value of the contract.
The Chicago Blackhawks will have a much tougher time winning now because Toews has a $10.5 million cap hit. Toews doesn’t produce enough to match his contract. In the two seasons with his new contract, Toews sits 39th in total points with 116. Kane also makes $10.5 million, but he has produced the most points in the NHL the past two seasons with 195. Crosby is second with 174, while Jamie Benn is third with 158. Kane is well ahead of the majority of the league.
Before you say, “But Toews is a great two-way player (another horrible phrase),” keep in mind Bergeron produced 121 points the past two seasons. He is just as good defensively, arguably better, but his cap hit is only US$6.875million. Toews production and contributions don’t come close to US$10.5-million in on-ice value.
The Penguins have been a top team since 2008. They made the final in 2008, 2009 and 2016, and are on the verge of doing it this year. The great teams will remain near the top if their best players are still producing at a level equal to their salary.
Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl are the Oilers’ two best forwards and, along with Cam Talbot, among their three best players. Talbot has two more years at a $4.167-million cap hit, and when he needs a new contract, Benoit Pouliot’s $4-million and Jordan Eberle’s $6-million contracts expire. The salary cap is a factor for every NHL team, but the suggestion a team’s window to win alters when the best players start their second or third contracts is not accurate in 2017.
As long as your star players are still producing and playing to a level that matches their salary, then those teams remain near the top.
McDavid and Draisaitl are just entering their prime years, and unless we see a massive drop in their production, their contracts won’t limit the Oilers’ chances. It just means management needs to ensure they find quality complementary players.
There should be no concern about the Oilers “window to win” for at least another eight to 10 years while McDavid and Draisaitl skate into their prime producing seasons.