Don’t dismiss ‘master organizer,’ analyst warns
For decided voters or those leaning in a certain political direction, a Jean-led UCP would win 59 per cent of the vote, compared to 28 per cent for the governing NDP. Among all decided voters, Jean would still sweep to victory with 48 per cent versus the NDP’s 21 per cent, though another 21 per cent remain undecided.
Kenney, meanwhile, who last year stepped down from his seat as a Calgary MP to run for the leadership of Alberta’s Tories on a platform of uniting the province’s right-wing parties, has become a more polarizing figure, with 56 per cent of decided and leaning voters choosing him compared to 30 per cent for the NDP.
For decided voters, however, the NDP see their support rise to 22 per cent while Kenney’s slides to 41 per cent, leaving a full 28 per cent unsure of who they’ll vote for.
“They used to say about (former Conservative prime minister) Stephen Harper, ‘People who like him, like him a lot, and people who don’t like him, don’t like him a lot.’ Jason Kenney is very much like Stephen Harper in that way,” said Maggi, noting the PC leadership contest and the formation of the UCP have seen his favourability scores plunge through the fractious campaigns.
“Because he’s been so polarizing he’s going to have an uphill battle, and not only in the leadership contest.”
Fildebrandt and Schweitzer also boast sterling numbers in the poll, earning 54 per cent and 52 per cent support from decided and leaning voters receptively, versus 30 per cent and 31 per cent for the NDP.
Maggi points out, however, Fildebrandt seems to push more undecided voters to other parties than his fellow leadership hopefuls. Notably, among decided voters, Fildebrandt leads Kenney by two points though support for the NDP is highest under his leadership.
While the numbers seem to favour Jean, Mount Royal University political analyst David Taras said discounting Kenney when he’s within the poll’s margin of error would be a mistake as he’s still likely the candidate to beat.
“Kenney is a master organizer and tireless campaigner — he’s the machine politician par excellence,” he said.
“These numbers are not really convincing for Jean. What Jean needed was a sizable lead over Kenney, and it doesn’t show that.”
While the prospects for any future leader of the UCP look good, Taras still wonders if any other big names could nudge into the race prior to the Oct. 28 leadership vote.
“The big question is will there be a mystery guest?” said Taras, pointing to recently retired Alberta MP Rona Ambrose as a name that could upend the leadership apple cart with a surprise candidacy.
“If she wanted to, I think the door would be wide open.”
The Mainstreet poll, collected via land line and cellular phone, is considered accurate within 2.14 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.