Kenney’s no-policy policy lets him campaign by his own rules
‘Grassroots Guarantee’ stunt could allow slick strategist to out-manoeuvre his foes
Two things to take away from a recent public opinion poll by Mainstreet Research: the new United Conservative Party would defeat the Alberta NDP if an election were held today; and UCP leadership candidate Brian Jean is viewed by the general public more favourably than his rival Jason Kenney.
Not surprisingly, the findings are giving a boost to the morale of UCP supporters in general and to Jean in particular.
A skeptic, though, would point out two things: there is no election today, and the leadership race is not being decided by the general public but by members of the UCP.
The results of the poll are certainly interesting and I think they’re spot on — but using those results to predict the future is a bit like using a thermometer to predict the weather.
For one, the UCP has no leader and no policy. People are projecting their own political fantasies onto a blank slate, something they did when the Wildrose was in its infancy. In adulthood, the Wildrose was not nearly so appealing to a majority of Albertans — a fate the NDP government is desperately hoping afflicts the UCP.
For another, the next provincial election isn’t scheduled until the spring of 2019 and if a day is a long time in politics, 20 months (give or take) is an eternity.
Speaking of which, there are 12 weeks until the UCP leadership vote Oct. 28. This leadership race will feel like an eternity.
If nothing else, it gives Kenney plenty of time to win over existing members of the UCP and/or sign up new members.
This contest is not about who is most popular in the eyes of the public, but who can sell the most memberships and get out the vote.
And Kenney demonstrated this week that’s exactly how he intends to win.
On Monday, he announced a “Grassroots Guarantee” where he said he will not issue any formal policy positions. Instead, policy in the new party “must be developed democratically by its grassroots members, not imposed by the leader.”
Kenney said he will continue to answer policy questions with his own views, but says the final answer will come from members at the party’s founding convention next year.
The Grassroots Guarantee is a stunt, but there is guile in his gimmickry. It allows Kenney to have it both ways, where he can offer up his own views on policy, but disavow those views if they turn out to be unpopular.
He can appeal to former Wildrose members who want grassroots members to dictate policy and he can simultaneously appeal to former Progressive Conservatives who hold out hope the party can be moderate.
The immediate goal for Kenney is not the next election or even the founding convention, but winning the UCP leadership.
This isn’t about news conferences and garnering public attention. This is simply about getting more votes than the other candidates Oct. 28.
Kenney has proven himself adept at this kind of deliberate, methodical, behind-the-scenes race.
His opponents are not happy. Jean, who is releasing policy reminiscent of the old Wildrose party, said: “Albertans deserve to know what the leadership candidates stand for,” and he accused Kenney of fostering “personality-based politics.”
Doug Schweitzer, whose policies are an echo of the old PC party, said Kenney’s grassroots guarantee “is simply a sad attempt to turn this leadership race into a campaign of rhetoric over substance.”
In other words, Kenney’s strategy has rattled his opponents.
Jean is staking out territory once claimed by the Wildrose while Schweitzer is planting his flag in old Progressive Conservative country.
They may have thought they were thus putting Kenney in a vise and squeezing from both sides.
But by issuing no policy, Kenney is signalling he’s not playing by their preconceived notions of what the race is about. He doesn’t need headlines or public attention.
He is relying on an impressive campaign machine that hasn’t failed him yet. By doing so, he is threatening to out-manoeuvre them both.
In this race, Kenney is marching to his own drummer.