CANADA IN FIRING LINE OF A NORTH KOREAN NUKE
OTTAWA LOCATED ON FLIGHT PATH TO NEW YORK
With the testing of Hwasong-14 last Friday, North Korea proved itself able to launch a nuclear-capable missile that could reach most of the continental U.S. It would also spend much of its flight time over Canadian soil.
Given Canada’s awkward geographic position between the Korean Peninsula and the U.S., any North Korean missile launched at an American target east of California would necessarily enter Canadian airspace.
An analysis of last Friday’s launch by the Union of Concerned Scientists highlighted the missiles’ risk to five major U.S. cities: Los Angeles, Chicago, Denver, Boston and New York.
“Washington, D.C. may be just out of range,” wrote researcher David Wright.
Although it may seem counterintuitive on a standard map, the shortest distance between North Korea and much of the United States involves plotting a course over the Arctic Circle.
It’s what’s known to navigators as a “great circle track,” and it’s the same reason why a direct flight from Los Angeles to London will pass over Northern Quebec.
Any missile fired at New York City, in particular, would pass over Gjoa Haven, Nunavut, Hudson Bay and Ottawa. A Bostonbound missile would pass near Montreal.
The North Korean missile threat caused former defence minister Peter MacKay this week to express regret that he wasn’t more aggressive in signing a continental missile defence strategy with the United States.
“I think the U.S. is going to take the necessary action to shoot down an imminent threat coming from any direction,” MacKay told the National Post by phone.
“They’re going to consult with us — they’ll let us know — but they’re going to do it,” he said.
A 2014 Senate report confirmed that should missiles suddenly appear over the Northwest Territories, Canada’s only military role would be to warn the Americans.
“Canada currently has no say on when, where or whether it should be engaged,” it read.
However, MacKay acknowledges that the Trump administration hasn’t made it an ideal time to get Canadians on board with a continental missile defence scheme.
“I suspect that there was a window when Obama was the president … when Canadians would have been far more comfortable and accepting of those discussions,” he said.
Being “in the way” of a nuclear war is quite familiar to Canada.
“This is exactly the same position that Canada was in during the Cold War,” said Fred Armbruster, executive director of the Canadian Civil Defence Museum, writing in an email to the National Post.
The famed Avro Arrow, in fact, was designed as an “interceptor” — an aircraft whose sole purpose was to fly to the Arctic as fast as possible and shoot down Soviet bombers primarily bound for the U.S.
North Korean analysts generally agree that the new missiles are intended by dictator Kim Jong Un as a way to extract political concessions in the region.
“At this point, we’ve got to be very concerned not that the North Koreans are just going to wake up one morning and decide to incinerate Tacoma or Seattle … (but) that they’re going to use their nukes for blackmail,” Gordon Chang, a frequent commentator on North Korea, told Washington State’s Komo News.
Chang added that for now, the U.S. East Coast is likely safe, given that the Hwasong-14 does not appear to have a functioning re-entry vehicle — meaning that any warhead would be broken up by the extreme heat and pressure of entering the Earth’s atmosphere.
However, the tests have prompted the state of Hawaii to begin drafting a preparedness plan in case of a North Korean missile attack.
Incidentally, Canada is also in the flight path of U.S. bound missiles fired by Iran, another country frequently cited as an contemporary nuclear threat.
Specifically, a missile fired from Tehran to Los Angeles would pass directly over Edmonton and Calgary.