OIL HAS A GRIP ON ALL PARTIES
Chapter 14 The NDP in a world made for oil
The nature of deep states is to work across the broad governing system rather than to commit fully to one political party. All political parties are eventually driven from power, and that is not a risk members of a deep state want to run. Canada’s oil industry is global, and it does business with hard conservatives in Texas, social democrats in Norway, and a long list of colonels, generals, presidents, and sheiks.
Having a grip on both the opposition party and the governing party in Alberta was just prudent, and if an unexpected twist of fate put a third party in office, there were other resources to employ. Deep states are opportunistically partisan in order to endure. It took less than twelve hours after the election for deep state Alberta to begin asserting itself with the New Democratic government of Rachel Notley.
The New Democratic Party was based on a complicated mixture of public and private sector unions, social justice advocates, intellectuals, progressives, and environmentalists. Though a respected opposition party, they had never come close to forming government in Alberta, and when the campaign began in April 2015, no one expected them to win, including their own candidates and organizers. Behind their well-spoken and appealing leader, Rachel Notley, they ran a smooth and smart campaign, and mistakes by the PCs and Wildrose added to the voter appetite for change, which had grown strong since the political nuptials of Jim Prentice and Danielle Smith. The NDP won a solid majority that made front pages across the country. The scale of the surprise and the bloodymindedness of the voters can be judged by campaign budgets. The NDP swept every seat in Edmonton and carried several smaller cities. They won fifteen of Calgary’s twenty-five seats, and in eleven of those, their candidates spent less than $1,000. In one constituency, the NDP candidate spent $350 to defeat the PC incumbent; the record went to Brandy Payne, who overcame the $85,000 campaign of an incumbent PC cabinet minister by spending $240, the price of a cheap suit marked down for clearance.
The NDP victor in Medicine Hat, Robert Wanner, had to be coaxed into the race three weeks before election day to replace a candidate who withdrew after facing assault charges; Wanner ended up as Speaker of the Alberta Legislature. The Notley government had to overcome its inexperience while dealing with a collapse of world oil prices and a sharply slowing Alberta economy. The provincial treasury they inherited had run deficits every year since 2008, despite record exports of oil and gas, a sign of how little the PCs were collecting from the resource. Alberta, with a population smaller than metropolitan Phoenix, Arizona, was selling more oil to the United States than Saudi Arabia or anyone else, yet was still sliding into debt. Despite controversies, the Notley government implemented several progressive policies the previous government would not have considered: raising minimum wages, ending the flat tax, and increasing corporate taxes. Its first bill was an important step to reduce the sway of big donors in Alberta politics by banning union and corporate donations to political parties.
It even appointed a prominent environmental activist and former co-director of Greenpeace to cochair the government’s Oil Sands Advisory Group. Did that mean the oil deep state was defeated in Alberta? Not for a moment. In her speech on election night and again in her news conference the next morning, Notley emphasized her government’s openness to its “partners in the energy industry.” She told reporters, “I’m going to be reaching out to industry and they can count on us to work collaboratively with them.” In response to a reporter’s question, she reiterated her message to the energy industry: “things are going to be just A-OK over here in Alberta.” She promised many phone calls and conversations with corporate leaders, and in her first Question Period as premier said, “Just to be clear, I’m very committed to ensuring that our energy industry is supported.”
These were understandable messages from a new government in an economy dominated by one industry, but as the NDP’s first year in office passed, the partnership began to look like a merger. In late November 2015, Premier Notley presented the work of her Climate Leadership Panel, which formed the basis of her government’s plan to help address global warming. “Our goal,” explained the premier, “is to become one of the world’s most progressive and forwardlooking energy producers.”
Two of the plan’s biggest components were bold and really could reduce emissions: a carbon tax and an accelerated phase-out of coal-fired power plants. But any gains from these were going to be lost to the staggering increase the plan allowed for oil sands and other oil and gas expansion; emissions would be 55 per cent higher in 2030 than they were in 2005. The premier was joined on stage by the heads of some of the biggest oil sands producers, including Steve Williams, CEO of Suncor, who said, “This plan will make one of the world’s largest oil-producing regions a leader in addressing the climate change challenge.” This statement was a blatant contradiction. It is not possible to address climate change with such a big jump in CO2 emissions.
Alberta, with a population smaller than metropolitan Phoenix, Arizona, was selling more oil to the United States than Saudi Arabia or anyone else, yet was still sliding into debt.