Kenney will win UCP vote, but I could be wrong
First-ballot win for ex-PC boss seems likely
Well, this is exciting.
Members of the new United Conservative Party will choose a leader for the first time this weekend. No matter who wins, Alberta politics will never be the same.
We have entered the binary age where we have two opposing parties — the UCP on the right and the NDP on the left, with no significant party straddling the middle of the political spectrum. But I’m getting ahead of myself. Let’s look at Saturday’s vote and the likely winner.
You have questions and I have answers. Q Who will win the leadership vote? A First, here are the candidates: Jason Kenney, former leader of
the Progressive Conservatives; Brian Jean, former leader of the Wildrose; and Doug Schweitzer, a Calgary lawyer with no background as an elected politician. Q Yes, but which of them is going to win?
A Hang on. Let’s look at the voting system. There are about 62,000 registered members of the UCP eligible to cast a ballot. They are voting by phone or by computer. The virtual polls opened at 9 a.m. on Thursday and will close at 5 p.m. Saturday. We should know the winner shortly after 5:30 p.m. Saturday. Q And who will that be?
A Hold your horses. I should point out an important aspect to the voting is that this is a preferential ballot. Voters will rank the candidates first, second and third. If one candidate wins 50 per cent plus one on the first count, he is declared the winner.
Q And that will be?
A I didn’t say somebody would win on the first ballot. If nobody wins on the first go around, the third place candidate is dropped from the race and his ballots’ second choices are counted and distributed among the first and second place candidates.
Here’s a hypothetical. Let’s say on the first count, Kenney has 45 per cent, Jean has 40 per cent and Schweitzer has 15 per cent. In that case, Schweitzer would be dropped from the race and officials would examine his ballots to count the second choices. Let’s say 12 per cent of those second choices were for Jean and three per cent for Kenney, then Jean would win the race with a total of 52 per cent (40 plus 12) and Kenney would get 48 per cent (45 plus 3). Q Oh, so you think Jean will win on the second ballot?
A Um, no. That was just a hypothetical scenario to explain how the preferential ballot works. Q Oh, for crying out loud, will you just tell us who will win? A I don’t know who will win. I can only say who I think will win. Q This is getting irritating. Tell us who you think will win or we’re all turning the page to the comics, OK? A I expect Kenney to win on the first ballot. Q You’re predicting a firstballot victory? Then why all the blather about the preferential ballot and second choices? A There’s always the chance I could be wrong. Q That would be a first, right?
A I take it you’re being sarcastic. Q Absolutely. So, why do you think Kenney will win on the first ballot?
A He is using the same people and tactics that saw him win the PC leadership and then shepherd the unification vote between the PC party and Wildrose. He has set out to do everything he said he would 16 months ago. Q You don’t think Schweitzer has a chance? A He’s a smart and likable candidate. But no. Q Hold on. According to public opinion polls, Jean is by far the most popular politician in Alberta. Doesn’t that count for something in this race?
A Not really. This contest is not about getting support from the general public but from a relatively small number of UCP members. Kenney’s team believes it has targeted its supporters and has got them out to vote. Kenney has been exuding confidence. Jean, on the other hand, has not. Q So you’re saying Kenney will win on the first ballot?
A Yes, but even if I’m wrong, Alberta politics is about to get even more interesting. Q If you’re wrong? Are you starting to hedge your bets? A Um, not at all. Q Yeah sure. What page did you say the comics are on?