Calgary byelection first electoral test for fledgling UCP
Kenney favoured to win legislature seat in race with some interesting storylines
CALGARY There’s been little drama throughout the campaign, but Thursday’s byelection in Calgary-Lougheed will mark a significant moment in Alberta politics.
The Dec. 14 vote was triggered by the October resignation of United Conservative Party MLA Dave Rodney, who stepped down to open a legislature seat for Jason Kenney, the newly elected leader of the fledgling party.
Kenney is the heavy favourite in the race and if he wins, as expected, the legislature will be a showcase for the former federal cabinet minister’s blunt-edged brand of politics, said Mount Royal University political scientist Lori Williams.
“He’ll be able to speak for himself and his party, and hold the government’s feet to the fire,” Williams said Wednesday.
“He’s got a very strong combative style ... it will be interesting to see how that style works up against the NDP and Rachel Notley.”
However, if a titanic upset occurs and Kenney loses to NDP candidate Phillip van der Merwe or Liberal Leader David Khan, “then Jason Kenney and the party are in big trouble,” said Williams.
The Calgary-Lougheed byelection is the first electoral test for the UCP, formed this past summer as a new party by agreement of Progressive Conservative and Wildrose members.
The south Calgary riding has long been a bastion for the Tories, although the NDP finished around 500 votes shy of Rodney in 2015.
Williams said that while the race has been short of fireworks, there have been several interesting dynamics in play, including the fact three party leaders are vying for the seat (Green Party Leader Romy Tittel is the third besides Kenney and Khan).
It has also seen two openly gay candidates — van der Merwe and Khan — challenging Kenney on the UCP’s position on issues such as gay-straight alliances in schools, and three candidates running to Kenney’s right — the Alberta Reform Party’s Lauren Thorsteinson and Independents Wayne Leslie and Larry Heather, she said.
Most of all, the CalgaryLougheed campaign has served as a dry run for the 2019 provincial election, with the parties testing out issues and themes ahead of the next vote, said Williams.
Kenney has lashed the NDP for what he says is fiscal and economic mismanagement since taking office, while the New Democrats have slammed the UCP as social conservatives who will slash public services.
Khan and the Liberals, meanwhile, are hoping to attract dissatisfied voters who see the UCP as too far right and left, respectively.
Premier Rachel Notley said Wednesday she’s proud of the campaign run by van der Merwe and the NDP, but downplayed the byelection’s connection to the next provincial election.
“Byelections are historically difficult for governments. Byelections with the leader of the Opposition in a riding I don’t think they’ve ever lost is probably not the best measure,” the premier said in an interview with Postmedia News.
Kenney was not made available for comment Wednesday.
Voting in the riding closes at 8 p.m. Thursday.
With Elections Alberta running a pilot program of electronic voting tabulators, a large number of results could be known within 20 to 30 minutes of polls closing.