Interprovincial migration swings to the plus side in third quarter

Prairie newcomers fuel razor-thin gain, ending streak of eight consecutive losses

Alberta gained more people from interprovincial migration than it lost for the first time since the downturn in the energy sector, new population data shows.

Alberta lost 17,032 people to other provinces between July and September of this year, but added 17,775, giving the province a net gain of 743 people in the third quarter.

The margin is razor-thin compared to the boom times of 2014, but it’s the first time Alberta has gained more people than it lost through interprovincial migration since the third quarter of 2015.

Alberta saw eight consecutive quarters of net negative interprovincial migration beginning in mid-2015.

In the four quarters before that, the province was drawing people from across Canada, gaining 21,594 people in net interprovincial migration in total.

Todd Hirsch, chief economist with ATB Financial, said provinces tend to lose more people than they gain during recessions.

“The fact now that it has turned back to positive, slightly positive, I think is good news,” he said in an interview Thursday.

“It corroborates a lot of other indicators in Alberta that in fact the economy is gaining some traction and is strengthening.”

During the downturn, Alberta

had net migration outflows of between 2,000 and 6,000 people per quarter.

Alberta’s net gain of 743 people was the third-highest among the provinces this quarter.

Ontario was the most popular destination with more than 7,800 net interprovincial migrants, while Manitoba lost 2,693, the most in Canada.

For the first time in 10 quarters, Alberta had more net interprovincial migrants than British Columbia.

Alberta’s largest net outflows this quarter were to Ontario — 1,365 more people left Alberta than moved here from that province. Its biggest gains were from Saskatchewan and Manitoba.

Hirsch said other indicators — including housing starts, manufacturing and retail activity — have improved in 2017, but are not back to where they were before the recession.

“I always get a little nervous if economic indicators are moving in the opposite direction and telling opposite stories,” he said. “Then you know there’s something more nuanced or more complicated going on.

“But what we’re seeing is most of these indicators moving in the same direction and now we are seeing fewer people leaving Alberta and more people coming back to Alberta. So all that’s pretty good news.”

While Alberta was losing people to Canada’s other provinces, its population did not shrink, thanks to immigration and natural increases. Even during the downturn, Alberta’s population grew at a faster rate than the national average.