Confidence grows among small-business owners

Alberta posts bigger percentage rise than rest of Canada, CFIB says in latest report

Confidence among small-business owners rose faster in Alberta than in any other province this month, according to a survey by the Canadian Federation of Independent Business.

The Alberta index, which measures small business optimism, spiked by 3.9 percentage points to 60.1 (out of 100) in December compared to November.

“We’re certainly pleased to see a relatively large increase in confidence levels among Alberta entrepreneurs, but I have to say it’s been a pretty tough year,” Richard Truscott, the federation’s vicepresident for Alberta and British Columbia, said Thursday.

“Alberta entrepreneurs, like other Albertans, are looking at the news and seeing the economy seems to be on the way to improvement … It seems to me they’re hoping 2018 will be better than 2017.”

Alberta entrepreneurs ... are looking at the news and seeing the economy seems to be on the way to improvement.

Confidence levels in the province have soared since bottoming out during the recession at 26.5 in March 2016, the lowest figure recorded in Canada since the federation started the monthly survey in 2009, Truscott said.

Levels between 65 and 75 are considered an indication of a healthy, growing economy.

“It was insanely low, a clear sign that Alberta small-business owners were suffering.”

The latest results show Quebec had the highest overall index at 66.3, followed by British Columbia, Nova Scotia and Alberta. The national index was 59.7.

In a quarterly update released last month, ATB Financial predicted Alberta’s economy would grow by 3.9 per cent in 2017, then rise by 2.7 per cent next year and 2.2 per cent in 2019.

The provincial government trumpeted in a Thursday news release the economic improvement seen during 2017, saying tens of thousands of full-time jobs were added, unemployment fell and average weekly earnings, exports, manufacturing, drilling and housing starts rose.

While the government says rising consumer confidence has led to record retail and hospitality sales, the small business federation’s survey indicated owners in these two fields were the least confident about the upcoming year.

One factor could be the impact of such provincial programs as boosting the hourly minimum wage to $15 next October and changing overtime, leave and other employment rules, Truscott said.

“A lot of entrepreneurs are just hoping the economy roars back to life and saves them.”

The December findings are based on 701 responses, collected from a rolling two-month random sample of federation members on a controlled-access web survey. Data reflect responses received through Dec. 14.

The findings are considered accurate within 3.7 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Meanwhile, a report by Edmonton chief economist John Rose shows inflation in the province is also on the rise.

The annual consumer price index jumped to 2.5 per cent in November from 1.3 per cent in October, mainly the result of higher gasoline and electricity prices over the past year.

The Edmonton region’s annual inflation rate was even higher, reaching 2.7 per cent in November compared to 1.3 per cent in October due to higher costs for shelter and a sharp spike in gasoline prices.

Modest shelter-related costs and a rising Canadian dollar that will reduce the price of imports should cut Edmonton’s inflation rate to 1.5 per cent in coming months before economic growth pushes it back up to two per cent, the report said.