ACES ON BRIDGE

“The hand you are dealt is determinism; the way you play it is free will.”

— Jawaharlal Nehru

Today’s deal is from Andrew Robson’s latest themed collection, “Counting and Card Placement,” available at baronbarclay.com.

Robson is one of the top European players.

He specializes in explaining the game in simple terms. He is much in demand as a teacher and lecturer, and his source material is excellent.

Consider today’s deal, where you have driven to slam in somewhat cavalier fashion after partner’s limit raise in hearts.

Of course, the club king wasn’t the card you had hoped to see in dummy — you would happily have traded it for the heart jack.

As declarer, you take the lead of the club two, third and fifth, and take the queen with your king. What should be your plan to play hearts for only one loser?

You can do nothing about 4-0 hearts, but if one defender has the bare ace, it seems slightly more likely to be West, since he appears to have the long clubs.

Rightly or wrongly, you cross to hand with the diamond ace and lead a heart to the 10, king and ace. Back comes a spade; plan your next move.

It is best to win the ace, cross to dummy by leading the diamond 10 to the jack, then play a trump. When East follows with the eight, the odds of finessing are clearly better than playing the queen. Why? Because we are weighing up either a singleton 10 or jack with West — in which case he would be forced to follow with that card — against doubleton jack-10.

Each of the singletons is almost as likely as one specific doubleton, so the odds are almost 2-to-1 in favor of finessing.

ANSWER: This hand may not be quite worth a double followed by a heart bid, but the alternatives are so inelegant (a two-heart overcall or a bid of one no-trump?) that the more flexible route seems wisest. You plan to double and bid hearts, but this might also allow you to get to diamonds in some circumstances.