GRAHAM THOMSON,
Notley seems to believe B.C. is giving up fight to block pipeline, but don’t be so sure
It’s too soon to say the war between Alberta and British Columbia is over.
But the provinces have ceased hostilities. For now.
On Thursday afternoon, B.C. Premier John Horgan sidelined his threat to limit Alberta’s ability to ship oilsands bitumen by pipeline to the West Coast.
Minutes later, Alberta Premier Rachel Notley lifted her government’s retaliatory boycott against B.C. wine.
Neither admitted to backing down. But in their eyeball-toeyeball standoff, both have apparently blinked.
Well, Notley has certainly blinked. She is ordering the Alberta Gaming and Liquor Commission to resume the importation of B.C. wine into Alberta.
But Horgan is not lifting his threat against Alberta bitumen. He is sending it off to the courts for a decision.
His blink looks a bit like a squinty-eyed dodge.
This should worry Notley. In the 2017 B.C. election campaign, Horgan pledged to use “every tool in the tool box” to stop the expansion of Kinder Morgan’s Trans Mountain pipeline. And the three-MLA Green party, which controls the balance of power in the B.C. legislature, has declared the pipeline project will never go ahead.
But Notley is decidedly upbeat. At a news conference Thursday afternoon, she said by handing the dispute to the courts, Horgan has backed down.
“B.C. is stepping back from the brink and abiding by the law. And this is a good thing. I’m confident that the courts will not give B.C. rights it does not possess under our Constitution,” Notley said.
“In other words, I am confident the Constitution will be upheld and we will have seen the last of these ridiculous threats.”
Or have we?
Notley might think Horgan is flying the flag of surrender, but you have to wonder if there’s a skull and crossbones on the other side.
He seems to be playing a game of semantics.
His original statement Jan. 30 had five points dealing with oil-spill response. Four were non-controversial, but the fifth point threatened “restrictions on the increase of diluted bitumen transportation” from Alberta through B.C.
That’s what sparked outrage from Alberta and, to a lesser extent, from the federal government.
They both argued B.C. does not have the constitutional power to dictate what products are shipped through a trans-provincial pipeline.
On Thursday, Horgan announced he would hive off the contentious fifth point to the courts for a ruling.
That’s why Notley is so confident. She is sure the court will side with Alberta and Ottawa.
But what if Horgan changes the question? He seemed to be doing just that Thursday in a news release.
In it, he didn’t mention the contentious issue of B.C. claiming to have constitutional powers over pipelines. Instead, he talked of “our right to take appropriate measures to protect our environment … We are prepared to confirm that right in the courts.”
Nobody — not Notley, not Ottawa — is disputing the B.C. government’s right to protect its environment.
The controversial issue is Horgan’s claim that he can control inter-provincial pipelines.
By not definitively killing that threat and by offering a stillundefined question to the courts, can we say Horgan has actually backed down?
It’s a question even Notley will admit hasn’t really been answered.
That’s why she made a point of saying her wine boycott is “suspended,” not ended.
Her market access task force will continue looking at reintroducing, and escalating, retaliatory measures if she discovers Horgan is playing games.
“If it becomes clear this action is in fact part of a deliberate strategy to harass the pipeline and its investors with frivolous or unconstitutional legal challenges, we will act immediately,” Notley told journalists.
But she seemed much more optimistic than cautious.
Of course, the only way we will finally know for sure pipeline opponents, including Horgan, have given up or have lost their fight will be the day when construction begins on the Kinder Morgan project.
Until then, the project remains in doubt.
That’s not good for the Alberta economy or the future of Notley’s government.
Despite her confidence that Albertans “have seen the last of these ridiculous threats” from Horgan, Notley might want to wait before opening a bottle of B.C. bubbly to celebrate.