Bus rapid transit can’t beat LRT, city study finds

One bus a minute — that’s how many buses Edmonton would need if it wants to run bus rapid transit to the west end instead of LRT, say city officials.

City officials ran the numbers in response to a motion from council and vigorous debate during the last election. Citizens wanted to know if bus rapid transit would be cheaper, just as effective and impact vehicle traffic less.

The answer is: not really. According to the report now heading to a public hearing March 21, the west LRT line is expected to see 40,100 riders on opening day and will meet demand by running trains every five minutes. One train can hold 550 people. Seven articulated or double buses are required to carry the same number.

Since a quality bus rapid transit system would give buses their own lane and priority over other traffic, the bus rapid transit system could actually have a greater impact on vehicle traffic. The one-minute frequency would “significantly impact intersection performance.”

City officials said the bus rapid transit line would be cheaper to build, about 75 per cent of the cost of LRT. That means $1.7 billion instead of the $2.2-billion estimate released earlier this week.

But buses cost more to run and maintain, and have a shorter lifespan than a train. That means the total life-cycle cost of bus rapid transit over 35 years could be 20 to 30 per cent more than LRT.

Ward 9 Coun. Tim Cartmell pushed for this BRT versus LRT comparison.

But he’s now interested in the report’s breakdown of cost by line segment. The section from West Edmonton Mall to Lewis Farms is estimated at $490 million.

That’s also where council anticipates the least amount of LRT-related redevelopment, which means the city gets the least amount of tax benefit to compensate for the cost. Maybe council should only run the line to West Edmonton Mall, he said.

“It’s too early to advocate for anything,” he said, but that’s one option to consider as council weighs what a $2.2-billion project will do to the city’s debt level and capital budget.

The west LRT is a low-floor system that will be an extension to the line currently under construction from downtown to Mill Woods. The project goes to a public hearing in front of city council March 21, where any member of the public can share their views.

Ward 1 Coun. Andrew Knack was taken aback by Cartmell’s suggestion.

“Can I give the world’s shortest answer? No,” he said.

People won’t take transit if they have to drive to an express bus, then transfer to LRT, he said.

The communities outside Anthony Henday Drive are dense with children. If the train doesn’t come soon, those families will buy third and fourth cars, he said. “We’re going to lose an entire generation.”