WE ARE NOT IMMUNE TO RUSSIAN INTERFERENCE

Populist influences are already present in Canada, Oleksandr Pankieiev writes.

Canada’s next federal election is coming up in 2019. A question hanging heavily over the heads of many is whether Russia will interfere and how effectively Canada would counter such interference.

The last two years have offered many examples of Russian manipulation of public opinion in various countries by exploiting social tensions, hacking, and leaking sensitive information. One of Russia’s goals is to compromise the free media and sow distrust of government to promote racism and hatred of particular groups and organizations. This undermines the stability of governments, shifting power to politicians sympathetic to Russia.

Over the past year, we have seen the consequences of Russia’s successful meddling in the 2016 U.S. presidential election. In Europe, the most prominent targets have been Britain, France, and the Netherlands. Ukraine was subjected not only to a thoroughgoing Russian propaganda campaign but also to armed aggression, which resulted in the annexation of the Crimea and ongoing military conflict in the Luhansk and Donetsk regions.

Any country that has expressed support for Ukraine in recent years or imposed tough sanctions on Russia may become a target. But if that interference is to succeed, then certain preconditions, sometimes shaped by Russia’s soft power, are required. We have seen the emergence of new political forces and trends that evince some degree of sympathy for Russia and president Vladimir Putin. Another common characteristic is that they have charismatic leaders who do not hesitate to use populist rhetoric.

Marine Le Pen, president of the National Front (France), a right-wing nationalist party, was a front-runner in the French elections of 2017. Her political agenda is heavily based on antiimmigrant sentiments provoked by the Syrian refugee crisis. She also used anti-Muslim rhetoric throughout her campaign. Last but not least, she is a good friend of Vladimir Putin.

During the election, French news outlets and social media were flooded with reports and posts produced by Russian or pro-Russian sources, all carefully crafted to promote hostility to immigration and Islamic fundamentalism. The goal was to improve Le Pen’s standing with voters and discredit her opponent, Emmanuel Macron. Two days before the election, Macron’s campaign emails were leaked — a tactic previously employed in the U.S.

In the Dutch election, Russian interference promoted the Dutch Freedom Party and leader, Geert Wilders, whose political views resemble those of Le Pen.

The Brexit referendum is also thought to have been influenced by Russian interference.

Could Canada also become a target of Russian electoral interference, with possible long-term damage to democracy?

Russia seeks to exploit existing problems and social tensions to undermine confidence in the democratic way of life among Western electorates. This strategy is abetted by political parties and individual politicians who exploit populist rhetoric to promote themselves by stoking hatred of minority groups.

Canada is no exception. There are various problems in this country that can be politicized to sow dissension, possibly leading to the political deadlock apparent in the U.S. Congress. The way to avoid this is to educate citizens about existing problems and promote rational discussion.

Fortunately, extreme populism does not have much of a following in Canadian politics, but last spring some Conservative Party leadership contenders voiced sentiments similar to those of Trump. Kellie Leitch called for the individual screening of every applicant for immigration to ensure conformity to “Canadian values.” The manifold problems involved in Canada’s search for reconciliation with its First Nations are also fraught with potential for conflict.

There are now pro-Russian websites in Canada that can be used as platforms to exploit such problems in order to fan the flames of conflict.

Fake websites that imitate the interfaces of prominent Canadian news websites have also been identified.

If the evil genie of populism escapes from its bottle, it will be difficult to coax him back, and there is reason to believe that he will be deaf to our wishes.

The last two years have offered many examples of Russian manipulation of public opinion.