Hopefully Senate can contain Trump’s hotheads

With the appointment of John Bolton as national security adviser and the nomination of Mike Pompeo as secretary of state, Donald Trump has a pair of interventionist, dangerous foreign policy practitioners.

They join Peter Navarro, an unreconstructed protectionist, who is now a leading economic adviser to Trump. Together, they are America’s Three Horsemen of the Apocalypse.

Forget the sweet cautions of Rex Tillerson and H.R. McMaster. Amid the hothouse rhetoric of Bolton and Pompeo, they sound like Mahatma Gandhi.

Trump wants to be Trump. A studied ignoramus, he will now lead by instinct, unshackled to the conventional wisdom of Tillerson and McMaster.

What are the implications of the doctrine of America First, which resents the principles of international organization, collective security and free trade?

First, it means imposing stiff tariffs and duties on China and other “unfair” traders. Trump’s protectionism will engulf Canada, too, if the NAFTA talks collapse.

Second, it means greater distrust of the United Nations, which Bolton famously loathes. Expect the United States to withdraw from its programs and agencies.

Third, it complicates talks with North Korea. If Trump, pressed by Bolton, makes denuclearization a precondition of the summit with Kim Jong Un, it will go nowhere. It may not even happen.

If the summit breaks down, relations will worsen. A frustrated North Korea will resume testing nuclear weapons. Pompeo and Bolton will urge Trump to hit North Korea.

On Iran, the United States will pull out of the multiparty, anti-nuclear agreement when sanction waivers come up for renewal May 12. Tillerson and McMaster have advised Trump not to withdraw; Bolton and Pompeo hope he will.

If the United States re-imposes sanctions on Iran, things fall apart. An angry Iran presumably restarts its nuclear program, returning to the status quo ante. Egged on by his war party ( joined by Israel’s Benjamin Netanyahu), Trump considers striking Iran.

Is all this written? Not necessarily. Trump, the world’s greatest showman and deal-maker, may want to use Bolton and Pompeo to create a sense of crisis, alarming adversaries and forcing them to do things America’s way.

There are reasons for calm. One is that James Mattis is still secretary of defence. He is the conciliator in Trump’s White House. If John Kelly leaves as chief of staff, as expected, Mattis will be the last of Trump’s generals standing.

Mattis has handled Trump shrewdly. He lies low, avoiding the media, and yes, indulging Trump’s impulses such as the proposed US$30 million military parade in Washington. But in a sabrerattling presidency, a Hail Mattis pass may be the world’s salvation.

The other reason for hope is that the Senate may reject Pompeo. Bolton’s appointment — which does not need Senate confirmation — increases pressure on the Democrats to use Pompeo as a way to isolate Bolton.

The Senate can begin by delaying Pompeo’s confirmation into late spring or summer. It can press him hard to explain his views on North Korea and Iran. It can ask him how he plans on working with Bolton.

Does he accept Bolton’s deep-seated belief in force? What happens if the Iran agreement collapses? What are his expectations of talks with North Korea?

Pushed by their loyalists, emboldened Democrats may decide to vote against Pompeo. (Many supported his confirmation as Trump’s director of the CIA, partly as a courtesy to a former member of Congress.)

Then it’s up to the Republicans in the Senate. John McCain, who is ill, may be absent for the vote. Rand Paul opposes Pompeo. In a Senate with a thin Republican majority, it will take only two dissenters if all Democrats vote against Pompeo.

If that happens, the nomination fails. Trump nominates someone else, presumably more moderate, who acts as a check on Bolton. A long shot, yes.

But, at this moment it’s the best hope of restraining a presidency tilting toward Armageddon.